El cambio estructural en la asignación de acciones globales: por qué las acciones internacionales desarrolladas son ahora un motor principal de rentabilidad

The global investment landscape is undergoing a profound reallocation of capital, with developed international equities emerging as a central driver of returns in 2025 and beyond. This shift is not merely cyclical but structural, rooted in valuation disparities, macroeconomic dynamics, and evolving risk-return profiles. For investors, understanding the forces behind this reallocation-and how to navigate the associated risks-is critical to building resilient, forward-looking portfolios.

A Confluence of Structural Forces

The reemergence of developed international equities as a core asset class is driven by three interrelated factors. First, a stark valuation gap between U.S. and international markets has created a compelling value proposition. As of 2025, the MSCI All Country World Index ex USA trades at a forward earnings multiple of 13.4 times, compared to the S&P 500's 20.9 times, reflecting a 36% discount in international markets.

This disparity, exacerbated by years of U.S. market dominance, has positioned international equities as a more attractive entry point for capital seeking growth at reasonable valuations.

Second, the weakening U.S. dollar has amplified the appeal of non-U.S. assets. A depreciating dollar enhances returns of foreign equities for U.S. investors and supports global trade flows, which are now rebounding after years of pandemic-related disruptions. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding new tariff policies has prompted investors to hedge against potential fragmentation in global supply chains, further fueling demand for diversified international exposure.

Third, structural reforms in developed markets-such as productivity-boosting AI adoption, increased fiscal spending, and a renewed focus on shareholder returns-are reshaping growth trajectories. These factors are creating a virtuous cycle of innovation and profitability, particularly in regions like Europe and Japan, where corporate governance reforms have enhanced competitiveness.

Strategic Reallocation: Balancing Opportunity and Risk

For investors, the challenge lies in capitalizing on these opportunities while managing risks in a volatile macroeconomic environment. Strategic reallocation to developed international equities requires a nuanced approach. J.P. Morgan recommends a 30% allocation to non-U.S. developed markets as a baseline, offering flexibility to adjust exposure in response to leadership shifts in the U.S. market or geopolitical volatility. This allocation also provides diversification benefits, as international equities have historically exhibited lower correlation to U.S. markets during periods of domestic stress.

However, the path to international exposure is not without pitfalls. LPL Research advises reducing domestic growth equity exposure and rotating into emerging markets (EM) for a more favorable risk-reward trade-off. While EM markets offer higher growth potential, they also carry elevated volatility and currency risks. A balanced approach-blending developed international equities with selective EM exposure-can optimize returns while mitigating downside risks.

Risk-Aware Investing in a Fragmented World

The 2025 investment environment demands a heightened focus on risk management. BlackRock warns that volatility will remain elevated due to slower global growth and shifting trade policies. To address this, investors should prioritize low-volatility strategies and defensive equities in the near term. For example, sectors like healthcare and utilities, which have demonstrated resilience during market downturns, can serve as ballast in international portfolios.

Additionally, currency hedging and sector diversification are essential tools. Currency fluctuations can erode returns, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where carry trades are less effective. By hedging foreign currency exposure, investors can isolate the equity risk premium and avoid unintended currency bets. Similarly, avoiding overconcentration in a single sector-such as technology-can reduce vulnerability to sector-specific shocks.

Conclusion: A New Paradigm for Global Portfolios

The structural shift toward developed international equities marks a pivotal moment in global investing. As valuations normalize, macroeconomic conditions evolve, and structural reforms take hold, international markets are reasserting their role as a core engine of returns. For risk-aware investors, the key is to adopt a disciplined, strategic approach that balances growth potential with downside protection. By reallocating capital to undervalued international assets and implementing robust risk management frameworks, investors can position themselves to thrive in a more diversified and dynamic global market.