Strive (ASST) Plunges 8.8% on Merger-Driven Volatility: Is the Bitcoin Treasury Play a Buy or Sell?

Summary
• Strive (ASST) slumps 8.8% to $2.745, trading below its 52-week low of $0.335
• Merger with Semler Scientific and $750M equity raise trigger market skepticism
• Bitcoin accumulation strategy and $1.5B financing potential fuel post-merger speculation
• Technical indicators signal short-term bearish momentum amid wide-ranging volatility

Strive’s stock has plunged 8.8% intraday following the completion of its merger with Semler Scientific and the announcement of a $750M equity raise. The sharp decline reflects mixed market sentiment toward the company’s aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy and structural uncertainties in the crypto sector. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and technical indicators pointing to bearish momentum, investors are weighing the risks of a sector-wide correction against the potential for long-term alpha generation through Bitcoin accumulation.

Merger Uncertainty and Bitcoin Volatility Spark Sell-Off
Strive’s 8.8% intraday decline stems from a confluence of factors: the completion of its merger with Semler Scientific, the $750M equity raise, and the announcement of a Bitcoin accumulation strategy. While the merger aims to create a $1.5B Bitcoin treasury company, market participants are skeptical about the execution risks of integrating Semler’s underperforming medical diagnostics business and the feasibility of outperforming Bitcoin through corporate treasury strategies. Additionally, the broader crypto sector’s recent underperformance—driven by regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds—has amplified selling pressure. The stock’s sharp drop from its intraday high of $3.09 to $2.63 underscores the market’s short-term bearish sentiment.

Asset Management Sector Mixed as BlackRock (BLK) Rises
The asset management sector remains fragmented, with BlackRock (BLK) rising 1.35% intraday, reflecting divergent investor sentiment. While Strive’s Bitcoin-focused strategy positions it as a niche player in the crypto treasury space, traditional asset managers like BlackRock continue to benefit from stable institutional flows and diversified product offerings. Strive’s aggressive leverage and exposure to Bitcoin’s volatility contrast sharply with the sector’s broader focus on low-cost index funds and active fixed-income strategies, which have seen stronger inflows in 2025.

Options and ETF Strategies for Navigating Strive’s Volatility
• RSI: 39.98 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.372 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.0545 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $8.98, Middle $5.59, Lower $2.20 (wide range)
• 200D MA: $2.95 (above current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $4.07–$4.19, 200D $0.36–$0.62

Strive’s technical profile suggests a short-term bearish bias amid oversold conditions and bearish MACD divergence. Key levels to monitor include the 200-day moving average at $2.95 and the lower Bollinger Band at $2.20. While the stock’s volatility offers options opportunities, the lack of a leveraged ETF complicates directional bets. Two options stand out for their high leverage and liquidity:

• ASST20251017C2.5 (Call, $2.5 strike, 2025-10-17):
- IV: 55.18% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 9.13%
- Delta: 0.773 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.005775 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.793 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 8,983 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.23 (max(0, 2.61 - 2.5))
- Why it stands out: High gamma and delta make this call option responsive to price swings, ideal for a volatile short-term trade.

• ASST20251017C3 (Call, $3 strike, 2025-10-17):
- IV: 89.64% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.27%
- Delta: 0.390 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.006807 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.622 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 14,416 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (max(0, 2.61 - 3))
- Why it stands out: Elevated IV and high leverage ratio position this as a speculative bet on a rebound, though it’s at risk of expiring worthless in a further decline.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider ASST20251017C2.5 for a short-term rebound trade, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $2.20.

Backtest Strive Stock Performance
Here is the completed back-test for “buy after an intraday plunge of ≥ 9 %” on Strive (ASST) from 1 Jan 2022 to 25 Sep 2025. A visual, drill-down report is available in the module below.Key take-aways (text summary)• Total strategy return: −50.8 %; maximum draw-down: 97 %. • Only one qualifying plunge occurred in the period, and the subsequent recovery was insufficient to offset the decline. • The engine used daily close prices and, in the absence of user-supplied exit rules, closed the trade at the end of the sample window (default behaviour). Auto-filled choices1. Exit rule: default “close at end of test” (no sell signals were supplied). 2. Price series: close prices—chosen because they align with end-of-day execution assumptions. 3. Holding period: entire residual sample—for a true post-event study when no explicit sell trigger is given. Feel free to adjust exit rules (e.g., fixed holding days, profit-taking or stop-loss) or refine the entry threshold and I can re-run the analysis.

Strive’s Bitcoin Bet: A High-Risk, High-Reward Play
Strive’s merger and Bitcoin treasury strategy represent a high-stakes gamble in a volatile sector. While the stock’s 8.8% decline reflects near-term skepticism, the company’s $1.5B financing potential and Bitcoin accumulation plan could drive long-term value if executed effectively. Investors should monitor key technical levels, including the 200-day moving average at $2.95 and the lower Bollinger Band at $2.20. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s 1.35% rise highlights the sector’s broader resilience. For now, the path of least resistance appears bearish, but a rebound above $3.00 could reignite bullish sentiment. Watch for $2.20 breakdown or regulatory reaction.