Strive (ASST) Plummets 9.85%: Merger Volatility or Bearish Breakout?

Summary
• Strive (ASST) trades at $3.02, down 9.85% from its $3.35 previous close
• Intraday range of $2.90–$3.20 highlights sharp selloff
• Merger with Semler Scientific and Bitcoin accumulation strategy dominate headlines
• Options volatility surges, with 20 contracts trading above $160,000 turnover

Strive’s stock has plunged nearly 10% in volatile intraday trading, driven by a combination of merger-related uncertainty, Bitcoin market dynamics, and technical breakdowns. The company’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation and all-stock Semler Scientific deal have ignited both optimism and skepticism, while technical indicators signal a critical juncture for the stock.

Merger Uncertainty and Bitcoin Volatility Collide
Strive’s 9.85% intraday drop stems from a confluence of factors: the all-stock Semler Scientific merger, which values the target at a 210% premium, has triggered short-term profit-taking and skepticism about execution risks. Simultaneously, the company’s Bitcoin accumulation—adding 5,816 BTC at $116,047 each—has exposed it to crypto market volatility. The merger’s potential to unlock over 10,900 BTC in combined holdings has created a dual narrative: long-term alpha-seeking versus short-term liquidity concerns. With ASST shares already down 8.1% pre-merger and Semler’s stock volatile post-announcement, the market is pricing in execution risks and sector consolidation fatigue.

Asset Management Sector Mixed as BlackRock (BLK) Holds Steady
The broader asset management sector remains fragmented, with BlackRock (BLK) down 0.38% despite strong custody bank earnings. While traditional custodians like BNY and State Street reported 7–9% YoY growth in securities services fees, Strive’s Bitcoin-centric model faces unique headwinds. The sector’s focus on fee-based services contrasts sharply with Strive’s speculative Bitcoin treasury strategy, highlighting divergent risk profiles. As crypto treasury companies face valuation pressures, Strive’s merger may signal a shift toward consolidation but also amplify sector volatility.

Options and ETFs for Navigating ASST’s Volatility
• RSI: 37.98 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.239 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.161
• Bollinger Bands: $2.56 (lower) vs. $8.88 (upper)
• 200D MA: $2.94 (near support)
• Gamma: 0.527 (high sensitivity to price moves)

ASST’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias amid oversold RSI and negative MACD, but the stock remains near its 200-day moving average. Key levels to watch: $2.90 (intraday low) and $3.20 (resistance). The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

1. ASST20251017P3 (Put, $3 strike, 2025-10-17):
• IV: 507.70% (extreme volatility)
• Leverage: 2.07% (moderate)
• Delta: -0.257 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: -0.022 (rapid time decay)
• Turnover: $352,684 (liquid)
• Gamma: 0.0827 (responsive to price swings)
This put option offers asymmetric upside in a 5% downside scenario, with a projected payoff of $0.14 per share (4.6% of strike). High IV and moderate delta make it ideal for short-term bearish bets.

2. ASST20251017C3 (Call, $3 strike, 2025-10-17):
• IV: 97.71% (moderate)
• Leverage: 9.98% (high)
• Delta: 0.551 (strong directional bias)
• Theta: -0.0085 (slow decay)
• Turnover: $9,444 (liquid)
• Gamma: 0.527 (high sensitivity)
This call offers leveraged exposure to a potential rebound above $3.20. With high gamma and leverage, it could benefit from a sharp reversal but carries time decay risks.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ASST20251017C3 into a bounce above $3.20, while bears should monitor ASST20251017P3 for a breakdown below $2.90.

Backtest Strive Stock Performance
The backtest has been completed. Please review the interactive report below for full analytics and charts. Key points you may want to note: • Trigger rule: every trading day whose intraday draw-down (low vs. high) reaches -10 % or worse from 1 Jan 2022 to 24 Sep 2025. • Order execution price: daily close (default). • No risk-control overlay (stop-loss / take-profit) was specified; the engine therefore assumed a simple buy-and-hold from each trigger until the next trigger. • All default choices were applied because they were not explicitly provided in the request.Feel free to explore the module for detailed metrics, equity curves, and trade-by-trade breakdowns. If you’d like to apply stop-loss/take-profit rules or test other draw-down thresholds, just let me know!

ASST at Crossroads: Consolidation or Correction?
Strive’s 9.85% drop reflects market skepticism about its merger execution and Bitcoin strategy, but technicals suggest a potential rebound near the 200-day moving average. The options market is pricing in extreme volatility, with IVs above 500% for October puts. Investors should watch for a breakdown below $2.90 or a breakout above $3.20 to confirm direction. Meanwhile, sector leader BlackRock (BLK) remains stable at -0.38%, signaling broader market caution. Act now: Position for a short-term bounce with ASST20251017C3 or hedge downside with ASST20251017P3.