Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) Market Overview

• STRAXUSDT posted a bearish close at 0.04336 after forming multiple bearish reversal patterns.
• Daily RSI suggests oversold conditions, though price remains below key moving averages.
• Volatility expanded in early trading, with Bollinger Bands widening after a consolidation phase.
• Notional turnover surged in late NY session, coinciding with a sharp breakdown from 0.0445 resistance.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.0436–0.0439 may serve as near-term support targets ahead of 0.0443 pivot.

Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) opened at 0.04431 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.04456, and closed at 0.04336 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 8,904,344.0 STRAX, with notional turnover reaching $396,116. The pair formed a bearish bias amid growing bearish momentum and expanded volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish reversal pattern, particularly after a sharp breakdown from the 0.0445 resistance area. A long lower wick formed at 0.04456, followed by a confirmed breakdown with a close below the 0.0443 support level. A 15-minute doji at 0.0443 and a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0443–0.0444 suggest exhaustion in the bullish side. Notably, a bearish pin bar at 0.04448 confirmed the breakdown and signaled a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart remained above price, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 SMAs are aligned lower, with the 50 SMA sitting at 0.0439. This suggests a medium-term bearish bias, with price currently below all key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bearish divergence with price, as negative momentum accelerated during the breakdown. RSI reached an oversold level of 32, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, though this may be a false signal amid strong bearish fundamentals. The RSI divergence suggests price may consolidate before the next bearish leg.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands widening from 0.0443 to 0.04456. Price closed near the lower band at 0.04336, suggesting increased bearish pressure and a higher probability of a continuation lower. The widened bands also indicate increased market uncertainty and risk of a sharp move in either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase, particularly in the 19:00–21:00 ET hours, with a massive 517,424.0 STRAX traded at 0.04397. This confirms the breakdown’s validity and signals strong bearish conviction. Notional turnover mirrored this, with a sharp rise in late NY session trading, suggesting increased participation from institutional players.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 0.04431–0.04456 swing, key support levels at 0.0443 (38.2%), 0.0441 (61.8%) were tested and breached. On the daily chart, the 0.0436 level at 61.8% of the previous bullish move from 0.04336 may serve as a critical support. A break below this could target 0.0431, with a potential retest of the 0.0439 pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias triggered on a confirmed breakdown of the 0.0443 level, with a stop placed above the 0.04456 high of the previous bearish pin bar. A target could be set at the 0.0436 level (61.8% Fib retracement), with a second target at 0.0431. A bearish engulfing pattern combined with divergence in RSI and bearish MACD histogram could serve as additional confirmation for entries. This approach aligns well with the observed structure, volume spikes, and Fibonacci levels, making it a testable model for a short-term bearish outlook.