Stratis/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-09

• STRAXUSDT traded in a tight range before surging to a 24-hour high near $0.03999 late Thursday, then correcting sharply.
• Key resistance appears near $0.039–$0.040, with support forming around $0.0380–$0.0383.
• Volatility spiked sharply after 16:00 ET as buying pressure surged, followed by a rapid reversal.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish after 08:00 ET, with RSI diverging from price during the decline.
• Large volume during the rally suggests institutional involvement, but divergences raise caution for near-term reversal risks.

The STRAXUSDT pair opened at $0.03789 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.03999 by 08:45 ET. It closed at $0.03819 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, with a low of $0.03762. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 35,420,504.0, and turnover reached $1,345,346.30. The price action suggests a volatile session with key support and resistance levels emerging.

Structure & Formations

STRAXUSDT formed a bullish engulfing pattern late on 2025-10-08, followed by a large bearish reversal candle on 2025-10-09 morning. This suggests a potential top formation at $0.03999. Support levels appear at $0.0383 and $0.03785, while resistance is likely to hold near $0.039–$0.040. A key bearish divergence was observed in RSI during the late-day sell-off, suggesting the move could continue into the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging upward, reflecting the earlier bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA is now flattening as the price declined sharply. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is above the 100-day and 200-day MAs, suggesting a still-bullish bias for the longer term, but caution is warranted due to recent volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after 08:00 ET as the price corrected from its intraday high. The histogram turned negative and is currently indicating bearish momentum. RSI has pulled back from overbought levels, now hovering near the neutral zone at 50. A key bearish divergence between RSI and price during the decline suggests the bear move may not have ended.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the price spike to $0.03999, with the bands widening to reflect increased market activity. As the price has retreated, it now trades near the lower band at $0.03819, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. A rebound above the mid-band could trigger a short-covering rally, but this would need to be confirmed by volume and momentum indicators.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late-day rally, peaking at 3,000,525 STRAX at 04:45 ET. However, during the subsequent correction, volume remained high but turnover declined, indicating a lack of conviction in the bear move. The divergence between volume and turnover raises questions about the strength of the bearish move and suggests potential support near $0.03785–$0.03815.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing from $0.03762 to $0.03999, the 61.8% retracement level is near $0.0387, which the price has already tested. A breakdown below the 38.2% retracement at $0.0382 could confirm bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the previous major swing is at $0.0383, aligning with the current support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent divergence in RSI and the bearish engulfing pattern, a backtest strategy could be based on shorting on a close below the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($0.0382) with a stop above $0.0385 and a target at $0.03762. This aligns with the observed bearish momentum and key support levels. A confirmation of a breakdown on high volume would enhance the signal’s reliability.