Strategy Nears S&P 500 Inclusion With 91% Chance Bitcoin Holds Above $95,240

MicroStrategy, the enterprise software firm, is on the verge of a significant milestone as it nears inclusion in the S&P 500 index. The company, now rebranded as Strategy, has a 91% chance of being added to the index by the end of the second quarter of 2025. This potential inclusion is contingent on Bitcoin maintaining a price above $95,240 through June 30. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading at $106,044, indicating favorable conditions for inclusion. However, any drop below the threshold could jeopardize the plan. If Bitcoin falls by more than 10% before the end of the quarter, Strategy's second-quarter earnings would not be sufficient to offset the cumulative losses from the previous three quarters. To qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500, a company must demonstrate positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters. Although Strategy has posted net losses in the last three quarters, a strong second-quarter performance, largely driven by gains from its Bitcoin holdings, could secure its eligibility.

Since the beginning of 2025, Strategy has adopted the ASU 2023-08 accounting rule, which requires marking Bitcoin holdings to fair market value. As a result, the company's quarterly earnings are now directly linked to Bitcoin's price movements, making its S&P 500 eligibility increasingly dependent on short-term crypto market performance. With 592,345 BTC on its balance sheet, Strategy currently holds more Bitcoin than any other publicly traded company. The 91% probability is based on Bitcoin's historical behavior. Since September 17, 2014, there have been 343 instances where Bitcoin fell by more than 10% over a 6-day period, compared to 3,585 periods where it did not. This equates to an 8.7% chance of a steep drop, leaving Strategy with a 91.3% probability that Bitcoin will remain stable as the second quarter concludes.

The probability of Bitcoin remaining stable increases with each passing day. For example, with 5 days remaining, the probability is 92.4%, with 4 days it is 93.4%, with 3 days it is 94.5%, with 2 days it is 95.8%, and with 1 day it is 97.6%. Despite the optimistic forecast, risks remain. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel briefly pushed Bitcoin below $100,000 over the weekend, the first dip below that level since early May. However, at the time of publication, Bitcoin had recovered to $106,200, keeping Strategy on track.

If Strategy is added to the S&P 500, it would be the second crypto-related firm to do so in 2025, following Coinbase's inclusion in May. This potential inclusion underscores the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency within the traditional financial landscape and highlights the strategic importance of Bitcoin holdings for publicly traded companies. The inclusion of Strategy in the S&P 500 could accelerate institutional interest in Bitcoin, increase demand for BTC-backed stocks, and further cement Bitcoin’s place in traditional finance. As June 30 approaches, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s price. If it holds above the $95,240 threshold, Strategy may finally enter the S&P 500, bringing Bitcoin with it.