Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Could Reach 1 Million by 2033, Says Bernstein

Bernstein analysts have projected that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, could accumulate over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033, contingent on favorable macroeconomic conditions and a bullish market cycle for Bitcoin. This projection is based on two distinct scenarios: an optimistic outlook and a more conservative bear case.

In the optimistic scenario, Strategy is expected to increase its Bitcoin holdings from the current 506,137 BTC to approximately 1,013,000 BTC, which would represent about 5.8% of the current circulating supply of Bitcoin. This growth is predicated on Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by late 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033. To achieve this level of accumulation, Strategy would need to secure continued access to capital markets, potentially increasing its total debt to $100 billion and raising $84 billion in equity. This trajectory is contingent on low interest rates and robust investor demand.

Conversely, the bear case presents a more constrained future. If Bitcoin reaches a peak in 2025 and subsequently enters a prolonged downturn, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings may stabilize around 514,800 BTC, constituting just 2.6% of the supply. This scenario would necessitate halting further acquisitions and possibly liquidating part of its treasury to manage debt and dividends. Under this model, debt would rise to $51 billion.

Despite the inherent risks, Bernstein has maintained an “outperform” rating on Strategy, setting a price target of $600, which represents a 75% upside from current levels. The firm’s valuation model applies a 2x EV/sales multiple on the software segment and a 55% premium on its Bitcoin reserves, aligning with its average market premium since pivoting to BTC.

Strategy’s recent purchase of 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million between March 17 and March 23 further solidifies its commitment to Bitcoin, pushing its total holdings beyond the 500,000 BTC mark. The company now holds more BTC than any other publicly traded entity, attracting interest from both retail and institutional investors.

Bernstein’s analysis underscores the continued institutional interest in Strategy’s leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. The firm’s approach exemplifies how corporate balance sheets are being restructured around Bitcoin, highlighting a significant shift in corporate strategy towards digital assets.