AT&T's Strategic Growth Plan: A Win for Shareholders

Alright, listen up, fellow investors! I've just returned from the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, and I've got some exciting news to share about AT&T's multi-year strategic growth plan. John Stankey, AT&T's chairman and CEO, took the stage to update shareholders, and let me tell you, I was blown away by the company's ambitious plans. So, grab a cup of coffee, and let's dive in!

First things first, AT&T is dead set on becoming the best connectivity provider in America. The company is investing heavily in its network, with a particular focus on 5G and fiber deployment. This strategic move positions AT&T at the intersection of two critical growth technologies, creating sustainable competitive advantages. But how does this translate to financial performance?

Well, AT&T expects to generate $50 billion+ in financial capacity over the next three years, largely through organic growth. The company plans to return $40 billion+ of this financial capacity to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2025-2027. The Board has already authorized an initial tranche of approximately $10 billion in common stock repurchases, with an additional $10 billion planned for 2027. AT&T also expects to maintain its current annualized common stock dividend of $1.11 per share, resulting in $20 billion+ in total dividend payments.

Now, you might be wondering how AT&T plans to achieve this impressive financial outlook. The company remains on track to meet all of the 2025 and multi-year financial and operational guidance shared during its fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call and at its 2024 Analyst & Investor Day. AT&T expects to achieve its net leverage target of 2.5x in the first half of 2025 and maintain leverage within this range through 2027.

But what about segment growth projections? In Mobility, AT&T expects full-year wireless service growth in the higher end of the 2% to 3% range and Mobility EBITDA growth in the higher end of the 3% to 4% range. In Consumer Wireline, the company anticipates full-year consumer fiber broadband revenue growth in the mid-teens and Consumer Wireline EBITDA growth in the high-single to low-double-digit range.

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room: the sale of AT&T's stake in DIRECTV to TPG. This strategic move is expected to contribute to AT&T's financial capacity, allowing the company to focus on its core connectivity offerings. The announced agreement to sell AT&T's stake in DIRECTV to TPG is expected to provide approximately $10 billion in incremental financial flexibility for items such as potential organic or inorganic strategic growth investments, debt repayment, redemptions of noncontrolling interests, or additional dividends or share repurchases.

So, what does all this mean for AT&T's valuation and shareholder value? Well, the company's capital return plan, including dividends and share repurchases, can positively impact its valuation and shareholder value by attracting income-focused investors, reducing the number of outstanding shares, and signaling management's confidence in the company's future prospects. Compared to its peers in the telecommunications industry, AT&T's plan is quite competitive, with $40 billion+ earmarked for shareholder returns over the next three years.

But don't just take my word for it. Let's take a look at some data to support AT&T's impressive financial outlook. Here's a table showing AT&T's projected financial capacity and capital return plan: