El caso estratégico de volver a entrar en los bonos de EE. UU. En medio de los ajustes de mercado en los primeros meses de 2025

The U.S. bond market has entered a pivotal phase in early 2025, marked by a recalibration of institutional positioning and a deliberate re-balancing of yield curve strategies. After years of navigating a high-interest-rate environment and volatile inflation dynamics, investors are now recalibrating their fixed-income allocations to capitalize on emerging opportunities amid a Fed easing cycle that, while modest, offers a path toward renewed liquidity. This shift reflects a nuanced understanding of macroeconomic risks and the evolving interplay between monetary policy, fiscal uncertainty, and asset correlations.

Institutional Positioning: A Move to the Belly of the Curve

Institutional investors have increasingly concentrated their bond portfolios in the "belly" of the U.S. yield curve-specifically, the 3- to 7-year maturity range. This strategic reallocation is driven by a dual imperative: to capture attractive yields while mitigating exposure to the long-end of the curve, which has become increasingly vulnerable to inflation persistence and fiscal policy uncertainties. According to a report by Reuters, investors are favoring intermediate-term Treasuries over long-duration bonds, as the latter face headwinds from a Fed that is unlikely to deliver aggressive rate cuts and a broader economic landscape where inflation remains stubbornly above 2%.

This shift is further reinforced by the evolving risk-return profile of the yield curve. The 3- to 7-year segment offers a compelling balance between yield and duration risk, with yields remaining elevated relative to historical averages. As stated by BlackRock in its fall 2025 investment outlook, this approach allows investors to "optimize returns in an environment of structural uncertainty" while avoiding the heightened volatility associated with longer maturities.

Yield Curve Re-Balancing: Shorter Durations and Active Management

The institutional focus on intermediate maturities is part of a broader re-balancing strategy that prioritizes shorter durations and active yield curve management. Data from the NBER highlights that investors are reducing exposure to the long end of the curve, with portfolio allocations increasingly skewed toward the 3- to 7-year range to manage duration risk effectively. This trend underscores a recognition that the Fed's anticipated easing cycle is unlikely to deliver the deep rate cuts seen in prior cycles, making long-duration bonds less attractive in a low-yield environment.

Moreover, the re-balancing effort extends beyond maturity selection to include dynamic adjustments in portfolio duration. Institutional investors are adopting a "barbell" approach, combining shorter-dated securities with selective exposure to intermediate maturities to hedge against both inflation surprises and potential policy missteps. This strategy aligns with the broader theme of "rethinking diversification," as outlined in BlackRock's analysis, which emphasizes active management of fixed-income allocations to adapt to shifting macroeconomic signals.

Risk Management in a Structurally Uncertain Environment

The strategic case for re-entering U.S. bonds is further strengthened by institutional efforts to refine risk management frameworks. With traditional diversification benefits between stocks and bonds eroding-driven by synchronized equity-bond market moves-investors are prioritizing tactical positioning to mitigate cross-asset volatility. The focus on intermediate-term bonds reflects a desire to balance income generation with capital preservation, particularly in a fiscal environment where U.S. budget deficits and political uncertainties add layers of complexity to long-term forecasts. According to NBER data, this strategic shift is supported by analysis of current market dynamics.