StoneCo Skyrockets 7.15%—What’s Fueling This Fintech Surge?

Summary
• StoneCo’s stock surges 10.67% intraday to $14.94, breaking above its 52-week low of $7.72
• Analysts at Bank of America and Susquehanna reiterate Buy ratings, with a $18.00 price target
• Simply Wall St highlights StoneCo as 49.7% undervalued relative to estimated fair value

StoneCo (STNE) has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, trading at $14.94 as of 6:32 PM ET—up 10.67% from its previous close of $13.50. The stock’s surge follows renewed analyst optimism and a compelling valuation narrative, with the Financial sector showing mixed but improving momentum. Traders are now scrutinizing technical levels and options activity to gauge whether this breakout is a sustainable trend or a short-term spike.

Analyst Optimism and Undervaluation Fuel Surge
StoneCo’s explosive 10.67% gain is driven by a confluence of analyst upgrades and valuation-driven buying. Bank of America’s Mario Pierry and Susquehanna’s recent Buy ratings, coupled with a $18.00 price target, have reignited investor confidence. Simultaneously, Simply Wall St’s analysis underscores StoneCo’s 49.7% discount to fair value, suggesting a compelling risk-rebalance in a market favoring undervalued cash-flow generators. The stock’s intraday high of $15.105 and volume of 8.04 million shares indicate strong short-term conviction, with bulls eyeing a retest of the 52-week high at $16.68.

Financial Sector Gains Momentum as StoneCo Leads
The Financial sector has shown uneven momentum, with StoneCo outperforming peers like DLocal (DLO), which rose 2.1% intraday. StoneCo’s 10.67% surge reflects its unique positioning as a fintech enabler in Brazil’s digital commerce boom, while DLocal’s smaller gain highlights sector-wide caution. Analysts note that StoneCo’s Q2 earnings—showing BRL 3.5 billion in revenue and BRL 630.9 million in net income—position it as a high-conviction play in a sector otherwise weighed by regulatory scrutiny and macroeconomic headwinds.

Options and ETFs Highlight High-Leverage Opportunities
• MACD: -0.477 (bearish divergence), RSI: 47.4 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 15.52 (upper), 13.72 (middle), 11.93 (lower)
• Moving Averages: 30D: $14.47 (bullish), 100D: $13.36 (neutral), 200D: $11.43 (bearish)
• Support/Resistance: 30D: $15.98–$16.06, 200D: $9.08–$9.25

StoneCo’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with the 30-day moving average acting as a key support. Traders should monitor the $15.52 upper Bollinger Band as a breakout threshold. For options, STNE20250815C15 and STNE20250815C14.5 stand out:

• STNE20250815C15: Strike $15, Expiry 8/15, IV 42.01% (moderate volatility), Leverage 37.60% (high gearing), Delta 0.535 (balanced sensitivity), Theta -0.0637 (time decay), Gamma 0.4248 (price responsiveness), Turnover 5,832
- IV (42.01%): Moderate volatility, Leverage (37.60%): High gearing, Delta (0.535): Balanced sensitivity, Gamma (0.4248): Strong price responsiveness
- This contract offers a 122.22% price change potential, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected payoff: $0.47 per share).

• STNE20250815C14.5: Strike $14.5, Expiry 8/15, IV 25.41% (low volatility), Leverage 25.07% (moderate gearing), Delta 0.845 (high directional bias), Theta -0.0725 (time decay), Gamma 0.4211 (price responsiveness), Turnover 5,572
- IV (25.41%): Low volatility, Leverage (25.07%): Moderate gearing, Delta (0.845): High directional bias, Gamma (0.4211): Strong price responsiveness
- With a 140% price change ratio, this call is a high-liquidity play for a 5% upside (projected payoff: $0.72 per share).

Aggressive bulls may consider STNE20250815C15 into a breakout above $15.52, while STNE20250815C14.5 offers a safer entry with higher delta. Watch for a close above $15.105 to confirm momentum.

Backtest StoneCo Stock Performance
The backtest of STNE's performance after an intraday surge of 7% shows mixed results. While the 3-Day win rate is 50.25%, the 10-Day win rate is slightly higher at 50.42%, the 30-Day win rate is 48.91%. However, the returns over these periods are negative, with a 3-Day return of -0.28%, a 10-Day return of -0.08%, and a 30-Day return of -0.86%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.07%, which occurred on the same day as the intraday surge, suggesting that the positive impact of the surge was short-lived.

Act Now—StoneCo’s Momentum Could Define the Week
StoneCo’s 10.67% surge signals a potential inflection point for a stock undervalued by nearly 50%. Traders should prioritize the $15.52 upper Bollinger Band as a critical breakout level, with the 200-day average at $11.43 acting as a deep support. Analysts’ $18.00 price target and Simply Wall St’s valuation thesis suggest a high-probability trade, but volatility remains elevated. Sector leader Visa (V), up 1.27% intraday, underscores the Financial sector’s cautious optimism. Watch for a close above $15.52 or a breakdown below $13.72 to dictate next steps.