Stocks Slip as Traders Weigh Labor Data, Rate-Cut Hopes

Preparing for next week's FOMC meeting 👇

U.S. stocks were mixed early Thursday, with major indexes showing only slight moves as investors picked through fresh labor-market readings and positioned ahead of year-end policy signals. Trading opened in a cautious but steady tone, reflecting a market balancing softer inflation hopes against lingering macro and political risks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 12.64 points (–0.03%) to 47,870.3, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 3.05 points (–0.01%) to 23,451.0. The S&P 500, however, added 3.50 points (+0.05%) to 6,853.22, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.20 points (–0.08%) to 249.43, according to early-session dashboards.

Commodities strengthened modestly, with crude oil up 0.20% to $59.07 and gold rising 0.24% to $4,242.70, signaling firm safe-haven and energy demand as the trading day began. Bitcoin hovered lower at $92,687.12 (–0.15%), extending its pullback from recent highs. The VIX, Wall Street’s volatility gauge, slipped to 15.96 (–0.75%), suggesting that risk appetite remained intact despite growing uncertainty about 2026.

That uncertainty is increasingly shaping market tone. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, flagged the “Top 5 Risks in 2026” in his Daily Spark note, including a potential re-acceleration in U.S. growth and inflation as the effects of the trade war fade and major fiscal legislation takes hold. He also warned that a “global industrial renaissance” could accelerate investment globally, while a politically driven rate cut by the new Fed Chair represents a distinct policy risk in the coming year. Additional risks include a possible AI bubble bursting, particularly among the Mag 7 stocks, and a surge in fixed-income supply from swelling deficits and hyperscaler issuance—factors that could push borrowing costs higher.

Corporate developments helped anchor pockets of enthusiasm. C3.ai shares were in focus after Wedbush highlighted what it called “a step in the right direction” for the company’s turnaround under new CEO Stephen Ehikian. The firm reaffirmed its OUTPERFORM rating and $20 price target, noting better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results. C3.ai posted $75.1 million in revenue, slightly above consensus, with improving traction in federal markets despite a prolonged government shutdown. Hyperscaler partnerships with Microsoft and AWS also expanded sharply, with joint qualified pipelines up 146% and 172% year over year, respectively. Wedbush cited reduced operating expenses and stronger deal quality as signs that the company is regaining execution discipline.

Still, analysts emphasized the need for consistency before the Street fully restores confidence following a rocky start to the fiscal year. C3.ai reinstated full-year guidance, projecting $289.5 million to $309.5 million in FY26 revenue and expecting durable demand from federal customers shifting to commercial off-the-shelf solutions.

With political dynamics intensifying ahead of 2026 and the Federal Reserve’s path still contested, investors spent the morning weighing whether recent labor-market softening is sufficient to justify early rate cuts. For now, the muted index moves suggest a market waiting for cleaner direction while remaining sensitive to macro surprises.