Stocks Rise Into the Close as Investors Eye APEC Signals

U.S. equities pushed higher Thursday into the closing bell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 144.20 points (0.31%) to 46,734.6, the S&P 500 up 39.01 (0.58%) to 6,738.41, and the Nasdaq Composite higher by 201.40 (0.89%) to 22,941.8; the Russell 2000 ETF added 1.26% to 246.41. Commodities firmed alongside stocks, with COMEX gold futures up 1.70% to $4,134.40 and NYMEX crude oil up 5.50% to $61.72 as traders positioned for Friday’s CPI release and watched for geopolitical signals from the upcoming APEC summit.

The inflation backdrop remains front and center. Economists expect headline and core CPI to rise 3.1% year over year, with a 0.4% monthly uptick in the headline gauge, reflecting tariff pass-through, firmer food and energy, and moderating shelter. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the September CPI on Friday morning despite the government shutdown, so the Social Security Administration can calculate the annual COLA based on the third-quarter CPI-W, a statutory requirement. Markets still price a roughly 99% chance of a Fed rate cut in October, even as debate shifts to the central bank’s balance-sheet runoff.

Investors are also parsing the stakes around APEC. As Citi Research's podcast notes, the forum encompasses a substantial slice of world commerce: “It’s now 21 economies, 40% of the global population, 60% of global GDP, and around 50% of global trade,” said Lucy Baldwin, Head of Research, Citi. With Washington and Beijing at odds, Johanna Chua, Global Head of Emerging Markets Economics, Citi, argued that APEC's breadth is singular: “You couldn’t recreate that organization if you tried to do it today, given the state of geopolitics that we are in.”

Chua highlighted “connector countries” such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico that sit along re-routed supply chains, while cautioning about a new threat, “there is this threat of a 40% transshipment tariff coming out of Washington.” Such policies could complicate trade flows just as services trade and digital exports offset sluggish goods volumes, a dynamic with clear implications for earnings in tech hardware, logistics, and business-services names across the Pacific Rim.

Broadway Curtain Up as Strike Avoided

Closer to home, New York’s cultural economy drew a sigh of relief after AFM Local 802 and the Broadway League reached a tentative three-year deal that averts a musicians’ strike and provides wage and health-benefit increases, pending ratification. The settlement follows a separate tentative agreement with Actors’ Equity last week and avoids widespread show closures that would have rippled through tourism and hospitality.

With CPI looming, traders will watch the report’s composition, energy, food, shelter, and real wages to show how quickly inflation is cooling beneath the surface. Any upside surprise could stir Treasury volatility and complicate expectations for the Fed’s path on quantitative tightening, even if the near-term rate decision remains largely priced.