Dónde estarán las acciones de EE. UU. en 10 años?

The U.S. stock market stands at a crossroads. In the near term, optimism abounds. Major financial institutions project robust gains for 2026, with the S&P 500 potentially climbing to 7,100–8,000, driven by earnings growth, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and AI-driven investment. Analysts highlight a 14% earnings growth forecast, bolstered by corporate cost-cutting and a favorable policy environment according to research. Yet, over the next decade, the same market faces structural risks: elevated valuations and a concentration of returns in a handful of mega-cap technology stocks.

Near-Term Bullishness: A Confluence of Catalysts

The current bullish outlook hinges on three pillars. First, earnings growth remains strong. Goldman Sachs estimates that U.S. equities could deliver an annualized return of 6.5% from 2025 to 2035, primarily from earnings expansion. Second, the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts-likely in response to moderating inflation-could further juice asset prices. Third, AI-related capital expenditures are reshaping corporate strategies, with Nvidia alone accounting for 20% of the S&P 500's total return in 2025.

However, this optimism is not without caveats. Persistent inflation and midterm election-year volatility could create short-term turbulence. Yet, for now, these risks are seen as temporary, with strategists arguing that high valuations are justified by the anticipated earnings boom.

Long-Term Risks: Valuations and Concentration

The 10-year outlook, however, is more nuanced. Vanguard's research underscores a fundamental truth: valuations act like gravity. The U.S. market's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23x-well above the global average-implies a 1% annual decline in valuations over the next decade, with downside risks pushing this to 3% according to Vanguard research. Goldman Sachs echoes this, forecasting that valuation normalization will offset part of the earnings-driven gains.

A second, more insidious risk lies in market concentration. As of October 2025, the "Magnificent 7" (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, and Meta) account for 36.6% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, up from 12.3% in 2015. This top-heavy structure means the index's performance is increasingly tied to a narrow group of stocks. During downturns, the volatility of these firms could drag the broader market down more sharply than in a diversified index according to research.

While the Magnificent 7 have delivered outsized returns-697.6% from 2015 to 2024-their dominance raises questions about sustainability. If these firms fail to meet expectations or if no new cohort of high-performing companies emerges, long-term returns could falter. J.P. Morgan's 10-year forecast acknowledges this, projecting 6.7% annual returns for U.S. large-cap stocks but noting that valuation pressures and margin declines will weigh on outcomes.

A Global Perspective: U.S. vs. the Rest

The U.S. is not the only market with concentration issues. As of September 2025, the top 10 U.S. stocks accounted for 33.8% of total market cap, placing the U.S. fifth-least concentrated among major economies. By comparison, Taiwan and South Korea exhibit far higher concentration, with the top five stocks accounting for up to 72% of market cap according to Reuters. This suggests that while U.S. concentration is notable, it is not extreme.

Nonetheless, international markets are increasingly seen as compelling alternatives. Vanguard and Goldman Sachs both project that Europe, Japan, and emerging markets will outperform the U.S. over the next decade, driven by stronger nominal GDP growth, policy reforms, and lower valuations. A weaker U.S. dollar is expected to further enhance non-U.S. equity returns when translated into USD.

Conclusion: Balancing Optimism and Caution

The U.S. stock market's near-term prospects are bright, but its long-term trajectory is clouded by structural risks. Elevated valuations and concentration in a few dominant stocks create a fragile foundation for sustained growth. Investors must weigh the allure of AI-driven earnings and rate cuts against the gravitational pull of normalization and the volatility of a top-heavy index.

For those with a 10-year horizon, diversification-both within and beyond U.S. equities-may prove as critical as selecting the right stocks. As Vanguard reminds us, "Valuations act like gravity." The question is whether the market can defy that pull long enough to justify today's optimism.