El rally del mercado bursátil es impulsado por el optimismo de IA y por las expectativas de una reducción de las tasas de interés: lo que los inversores deberían saber

• The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Christmas Eve 2025, extending its winning streak to four days as investors anticipate AI-driven corporate earnings growth.
• , signaling strong demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.
• The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates in January, but market participants are pricing in two cuts by the end of 2026, which is fueling optimism about the stock market’s trajectory.

The S&P 500 and other major indices are notching new records as investors embrace a mix of optimism around AI adoption, tax cuts, and low-interest-rate environments. This momentum, however, comes with risks, including thin holiday trading and uncertainty around the U.S. economy’s resilience in 2026. For now, AI infrastructure leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft are outpacing traditional retailers, and gold’s record prices reflect broader macroeconomic anxieties. Retail investors are advised to balance this rally with a longer-term view as they monitor corporate earnings and Fed policy.

What Is Driving the Stock Market Rally Ahead of Christmas 2025?

The stock market’s surge to new records in late 2025 is being powered by a confluence of factors. . economy can weather potential slowdowns and geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the AI supercycle is reshaping corporate earnings, with companies like Nvidia and Micron Technologies leading the charge by supplying chips and infrastructure for AI development. These firms are reaping the benefits of large-scale capital investments in data centers and hyperscaler infrastructure, which are driving long-term productivity gains.

The “,” which extended tax cuts and incentivized domestic manufacturing, is also playing a role in supporting corporate profits. This, combined with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-cutting cycle in 2025, has created favorable macroeconomic conditions. As a result, investors are increasingly viewing the stock market as a place to capitalize on both AI-driven innovation and accommodative monetary policy. However, thin trading volumes and mixed economic signals—such as soft consumer confidence—suggest the rally is not without volatility.

Why Is the Stock Market Open Today Despite the Holiday-Shortened Trading Session?

The stock market closed higher on Christmas Eve 2025, even though trading was shortened due to the holiday. This is common during the , a historical pattern where stocks tend to rise in the last week of December and the first week of January. The rally is driven by institutional investors who close out short-term positions and rebalance portfolios ahead of the new year. With the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high, many traders were eager to lock in gains before the Christmas break.

While the market was trading in reduced volume, the rally showed no signs of losing momentum. Investors continue to focus on macroeconomic indicators such as jobless claims and consumer confidence for clues about the Fed’s next move. , the market is essentially pricing in a more dovish Fed in the near future. This has supported demand for equities and commodities alike.

What to Watch: Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs Amid AI Optimism

Gold and silver prices reached historic highs in 2025, . This surge reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment, as many are turning to precious metals as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical risks, and potential market corrections. , , due to strong fundamentals such as central bank buying and a weakening U.S. dollar.

Silver has outperformed gold, . This is partly due to its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list and increased industrial use in sectors like renewable energy. Analysts from Societe Generale suggest that the risk of a major drop in gold prices is largely tied to a potential slowdown in demand from emerging market central banks. For now, investor positions suggest the extraordinary rise in gold prices will continue, .

As investors wrap up their year, the market remains focused on how AI-driven growth, geopolitical tensions, and Fed policy will shape the landscape in 2026. For now, the rally appears to be a reflection of both optimism and caution—a mix that many retail investors are watching closely.