Stock Analysis | Walmart Outlook - Strong Technicals and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Walmart (WMT) is showing strong technical momentum, but fundamentals and fund-flows are mixed. With an internal diagnostic technical score of 8.38, the charts suggest a potentially bullish setup, though recent price action has fallen by 3.40% and money flows are trending negatively.

News Highlights

• Costco's Upcoming Earnings — With Costco Wholesale (COST) set to report results, investors might be watching to see if similar retail sector momentum could influence Walmart's direction. Analysts expect Costco to report earnings per share of $4.21.
• Strong Buy from Goldman Sachs — On August 22, Goldman Sachs gave Walmart a "Strong Buy" rating with a 100.0% historical win rate in its only recent recommendation. This could indicate growing optimism in the stock's long-term prospects.
• Investor Caution on the Horizon — The broader market is showing mixed signals. The TCW Relative Value Mid Cap Fund highlighted concerns about tariffs, slowing economic growth, and inflation uncertainties, which could affect retail stocks like Walmart in the near term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are generally optimistic about Walmart, with a simple average rating of 4.31 and a performance-weighted rating of 3.57. However, there is some disagreement among institutions, with a mix of "Strong Buy," "Buy," and underperform ratings over the last 20 days.

These analyst signals are not perfectly aligned with the recent price trend, which has fallen by 3.40%. The internal diagnostic fundamental score is 5.56, suggesting moderate strength, but there is room for improvement.

Key Fundamental Metrics

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY Growth Rate): -69.89%. This is a red flag with an internal score of 2.00.
• Quick Ratio: 21.94%. This liquidity metric is strong and supports the bull case, with an internal score of 3.00.
• Asset-Liability Ratio: 64.32%. A relatively high ratio, but it has a moderate score of 2.00, indicating mixed sentiment.
• Equity Multiplier: 301.19%. High leverage is a risk, but the score is 2.00, suggesting caution but not alarm.
• Equity Ratio (Total Liabilities / Shareholders’ Equity): 193.87%. Again, a high value, but with a score of 2.00, showing moderate concern.
• Shareholders’ Equity / Total Liabilities: 51.58%. This is a decent ratio with an internal score of 3.00, supporting the fundamental case.
• Diluted Earnings per Share (YoY Growth): 84.75%. Positive growth in earnings, though the score is only 1.00, indicating limited momentum.

Money-Flow Trends

Money flows are trending negatively across all sizes — small, medium, large, and extra-large — with inflow ratios all below 50%. Specifically:

• Small Inflow Ratio: 49.05%
• Medium Inflow Ratio: 49.47%
• Large Inflow Ratio: 49.48%
• Extra-Large Inflow Ratio: 48.90%
• Block Inflow Ratio: 49.05%

With an internal diagnostic fund-flow score of 7.89, the market appears to be cautious. While institutional flows are not extremely bearish, the lack of strong inflow suggests investors are hesitant or waiting for clearer signals before committing larger capital.

Key Technical Signals

From a technical perspective, Walmart is showing strong momentum. The internal diagnostic technical score is 8.38, one of the highest on record.

Indicator Details

• Williams %R Oversold (WR Oversold): This indicator has an internal score of 8.38, indicating a strong bullish signal. It has historically averaged a return of 0.76% with a 71.05% win rate over 38 past signals.

Recent Chart Patterns

Over the past five days (from August 22 to August 27, 2025), the WR Oversold indicator has appeared daily, indicating that the market is in a potentially rising phase. These signals reinforce the idea that a pullback may be near its end, and a bullish move could follow.

Technical Insights

The technical analysis highlights a dominant bullish signal (1 vs. 0 bearish indicators), with a neutral-to-bullish overall trend. Recent signals are scarce, which points to a relatively calm market and potentially a setup for a breakout or continuation pattern.

Conclusion

Walmart is at an inflection point, with strong technicals and mixed fundamentals and analyst signals. The internal diagnostic technical score of 8.38 and the repeated appearance of the WR Oversold indicator suggest the stock could be due for a move higher.

However, the weak fundamental cash flow and mixed analyst consensus call for a measured approach. Watch for any signs of follow-through in the next 1–2 weeks, especially around potential earnings or retail sector macro updates. In the meantime, investors may want to consider waiting for a pullback or confirmation of a breakout before entering long positions.