Stock Analysis | TKO Group Holdings Outlook - A Mixed Picture Amid Analyst Optimism and Weak Technicals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Despite recent analyst optimism, TKO Group Holdings is facing a bearish technical outlook with a current price decline of -1.83%.

News Highlights

Recent news items highlight broader market dynamics and sector-specific challenges:

• FTX's Staking Amid Bankruptcy: FTX's staking of $125 million in Ethereum and Solana raises concerns about asset liquidity and transparency, potentially affecting creditor repayments and broader market dynamics.
• Boeing Machinists’ Contract Vote: Boeing’s machinists are set to vote on a new contract offer, with a potential strike looming that could disrupt defense projects and labor negotiations.
• U.S. Tariffs on EU and U.K.: A new 15% U.S. tariff on EU imports, including spirits and wine, is set to take effect on August 1, potentially raising consumer prices and affecting trade relations.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain optimistic about TKO Group Holdings. Here’s the breakdown:

• Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 4.67
• Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 4.43
• Rating Consistency: Analysts are largely aligned, with a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" rating from all three major institutions (Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim, and JP Morgan).
• Price Trend Mismatch: Despite the positive ratings, the current price is declining, showing a misalignment between market sentiment and price action.

Key Fundamental Factors

Here are the key fundamental values and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Annualized Return on Equity (%): 5.66% (Score: 7.30)
• Basic Earnings Per Share YoY Growth (%): 157.14% (Score: 6.60)
• Cash-UP: 0.92 (Score: 8.10)
• Shareholders’ Equity Growth (%): 1.73% (Score: 7.70)
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent (% of Net Profit): 35.28% (Score: 7.50)
• Asset-MV: 0.45 (Score: 8.60)
• Inventory Turnover Days: 267.43 (Score: 7.40)

Money-Flow Trends

Money flow for TKO Group Holdings remains positive across all categories:

• Overall Inflow Ratio: 50.78%
• Large and Extra-Large Investor Inflows: Both show inflow ratios above 50%, suggesting institutional confidence.
• Small Investor Inflows: At 51.03%, retail sentiment is also trending upward.
• Score Evaluation: The fund-flow score of 7.93 (on a 10-point scale) is classified as "good," indicating strong inflows across all investor categories.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, TKO Group Holdings is under pressure with only bearish indicators showing strength:

• Long Lower Shadow: Score: 2.06 (internal diagnostic score) — a bearish signal with a low win rate of 33.33% historically.
• WR Oversold: Score: 6.49 — a neutral to slightly bullish signal with a 58.82% win rate.
• Bearish Engulfing: Score: 6.71 — a neutral to bullish signal with a strong 63.64% win rate.
• Bullish Engulfing: Score: 4.27 — a neutral to bearish signal with a 57.14% win rate.

Recent Chart Patterns

Key recent indicators include:

• July 16: "Long Lower Shadow" — a bearish candle pattern.
• July 15: "WR Oversold" — a neutral signal suggesting potential for a rebound.
• July 29: "Bearish Engulfing" — a bearish reversal pattern.
• July 10: "Bullish Engulfing" — a bullish reversal pattern.

Overall Trend: "Technical trend is weak — proceed with caution." The market is in a consolidation phase, with no clear direction.

Conclusion

TKO Group Holdings is in a mixed situation. Analysts are optimistic with a weighted average rating of 4.43 and strong fundamentals. However, technical indicators are bearish, with a score of 4.88 and a weak trend. The recent price decline (-1.83%) contrasts with the positive sentiment.

Actionable Takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer technical signals before making a move. Monitor the upcoming earnings and watch for any reversal patterns on the chart for potential entry points.