Stock Analysis | Tapestry Outlook - Mixed Signals Emerge Amid Analyst Optimism and Technical Neutrality

Market Snapshot

Tapestry's recent price trend shows an 8.86% decline, but the stock remains in a technically neutral zone, with bullish signals slightly outweighing bearish ones.

News Highlights

Recent news items highlight the luxury market's mixed performance and regulatory actions:

• On May 26, 2025, the Bureau of Customs in the Philippines seized P15.8 billion in counterfeit luxury goods, signaling ongoing global concerns about brand authenticity in the sector.
• On May 31, 2025, a luxury sedan collaboration between Huawei and JAC was confirmed to launch, showing how tech firms are entering the luxury space, potentially affecting brand dynamics in consumer markets.
• On May 23, 2025, Providence Equity Partners acquired a stake in Global Critical Logistics, a company that specializes in shipping luxury goods and events, hinting at growing investment in logistics infrastructure for high-end products.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Tapestry is receiving a mix of signals from analysts. The simple average rating score is 3.70, while the weighted rating score is 4.43. The ratings are not fully aligned, with 7 "Buy" and 3 "Neutral" recommendations in the last 20 days. These scores suggest moderate optimism among analysts, although the current price drop indicates a mismatch between market sentiment and actual price movement.

Key fundamental factors and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10) are as follows:

• EV/EBIT (136.07) – internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Asset-MV (-0.89) – internal diagnostic score: 6.35
• Revenue-MV (2.20%) – internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Profit-MV (-1.15) – internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Cash-MV (6.44%) – internal diagnostic score: 1.00
• Cash-UP (136.41%) – internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Inventory turnover ratio (106.11%) – internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Income tax / Total profit (12.96%) – internal diagnostic score: 0.00
• Net profit / Total profit (87.04%) – internal diagnostic score: 0.00
• EBIT / Total operating revenue (16.91%) – internal diagnostic score: 0.00

This mix shows some strong indicators in asset leverage and operating cash flow but reveals weaknesses in profit margins and tax efficiency.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is moving out of Tapestry, with an overall inflow ratio of 47.30%. While retail investors show a positive small-trend with 50.16% inflow, the larger institutional and ultra-large investors are showing negative trends at 47.74% and 46.36%, respectively. This divergence suggests a cautious stance from major investors despite retail optimism.

With an internal diagnostic score of 7.78 for fund-flow trends, the stock appears to be in a mixed but slightly favorable position for short-term speculative activity.

Key Technical Signals

Tapestry’s technical outlook shows a balance between bullish and bearish signals. The overall technical trend is neutral with a 6.98 internal diagnostic score, indicating moderate attention but no clear direction.

• Long Upper Shadow – internal diagnostic score: 8.13, indicating a strong bullish pattern.
• WR Oversold – internal diagnostic score: 7.78, also showing strong bullish bias.
• Earnings Release Date – internal diagnostic score: 8.13, reinforcing the bullish signal around recent earnings events.
• Long Lower Shadow – internal diagnostic score: 3.59, a weak indicator and the top bearish signal in the analysis.

Looking at recent chart patterns, on August 14, 2025, multiple indicators—Long Upper Shadow, Long Lower Shadow, WR Oversold, and Earnings Release Date—appeared simultaneously. This suggests high volatility and conflicting market signals.

Conclusion

Tapestry remains a mixed bag for investors, showing strong fundamental leverage and moderate analyst optimism, but with technical neutrality and mixed money flows. The upcoming earnings on August 14 will be a key trigger to watch for confirmation of bullish momentum or a potential reversal.

Actionable takeaway: Consider a cautious entry or wait for a pullback if the technical score improves post-earnings. Investors should monitor the retail inflow and key indicators like Long Upper Shadow and WR Oversold for confirmation signals.