Stock Analysis | Sempra Outlook - Bearish Momentum and Mixed Analyst Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Sempra (SRE) faces bearish technical momentum with mixed analyst signals—caution is advised. The price has declined slightly in recent sessions (-0.23%), aligning with a pessimistic market outlook.

2. News Highlights

Recent news affecting energy and regional banking firms hasn't been particularly relevant to Sempra, but two items stand out:

• SEC filings by SouthState Corporation: Though unrelated to Sempra directly, this highlights ongoing regulatory activity, which could impact investor sentiment across the market.
• Stryker tops list of West Michigan’s largest publicly traded companies: This reinforces the idea that energy and utility stocks aren't dominating the headlines, which could mean reduced investor inflows into Sempra's sector.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst ratings: A single analyst (Ryan Levine from Citigroup) has recently issued a "Neutral" rating for SRE. The simple average rating is 3.00, while the historical performance-weighted rating is 1.65. Despite this, the analyst's historical win rate is only 50%, adding uncertainty to the rating's reliability.

The rating dispersion is wide, with just one active analyst—making it hard to identify a strong consensus. This lack of agreement contrasts with the downward price trend, which has dropped slightly (-0.23%).

Fundamental factors:

• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate): -12.13% (internal diagnostic score: 5.8)
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth rate): -12.18% (internal diagnostic score: 5.8)
• Net assets per share (growth rate %): 1.31% (internal diagnostic score: 5.8)
• Total profit (YoY growth rate): -7.08% (internal diagnostic score: 5.8)
• Cash flow (Cash-UP): -0.52% (internal diagnostic score: 5.8)

These mixed results show some resilience but highlight the ongoing challenges in the energy utility sector.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money outflows have dominated SRE recently. The fund-flow score is 7.81 (good), which is encouraging, but this belies the negative trends across all major investment categories:

• Extra-large investor inflow ratio: 0.475
• Large investor inflow ratio: 0.488
• Medium investor inflow ratio: 0.499

This suggests that while big players are still involved, the overall direction is negative, signaling caution for retail and institutional investors alike.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, SRE is showing a weak trend, with more bearish than bullish indicators active. The technical score is 4.37 (weak technology, need to be cautious). Here's how the indicators stack up:

• Williams %R (WR) Overbought: 3.69 (internal diagnostic score)
• WR Oversold: 6.35 (internal diagnostic score)
• MACD Death Cross: 3.09 (internal diagnostic score)
• Earnings Release Date: 4.55 (internal diagnostic score)
• Marubozu White: 4.17 (internal diagnostic score)

Recent chart patterns (by date):

• 2025-08-04: WR Oversold, MACD Death Cross
• 2025-08-07: Earnings Release Date
• 2025-08-11: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-18: WR Oversold
• 2025-08-19: Marubozu White

These patterns suggest a volatile and directionless market, with no strong momentum in either direction. The MACD Death Cross and WR Overbought both signal caution for bullish investors.

6. Conclusion

With a weak technical score of 4.37 and mixed analyst signals, now may not be the best time to chase Sempra higher. While big-money players are still present, the negative inflow ratios and declining earnings suggest that the stock is under pressure. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pullback before committing capital, and keep an eye on the upcoming earnings release for potential direction.