Stock Analysis | Pool Outlook - Technical Weakness Overshadows Mixed Fundamentals Amid Key Supply Chain Headlines

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Pool (POOL) faces a bearish technical outlook with an internal diagnostic score of 1.34 and no bullish signals in the last 5 days.

News Highlights

• 2025 Challenges for Distributors: The distribution sector continues to face headwinds from political instability, pandemic aftershocks, and tariff uncertainties, all of which affect Pool's core business.
• How Distributors Are Solving Supply Chain Challenges: Industry leaders are adapting to complex supply chain disruptions, but these efforts may take time to fully impact companies like Pool.
• Future Distribution Trends & Innovations: The industry is focusing on smarter technology and improved customer service, which could help long-term but may not reverse current downward trends in the short term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst sentiment on Pool is mixed: a simple average of ratings is 3.50, but a performance-weighted average is 2.31, indicating a more bearish outlook from historically successful analysts. The ratings are not consistent—two recent ratings are "Buy" and "Neutral."

This contrasts with the stock's current price trend of a -1.70% decline, suggesting that the market is not fully aligned with analyst expectations.

Key Fundamental Factor Values and Model Scores:

• Total Operating Revenue YoY Growth Rate: -1.19% (model score: 0.06)
• ROE (Diluted) YoY Growth Rate: 16.46% (model score: 0.06)
• Net Profit Margin: 8.68% (model score: 0.06)
• Current Liabilities / Total Liabilities: 34.05% (model score: 0.06)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and institutional investors are showing a negative trend with block inflow ratio at 49.38%, while the overall inflow ratio is slightly positive at 49.55%. This suggests some retail or small investors are still buying, but larger players are stepping back. The internal diagnostic fund-flow score is 7.81 (good), indicating strong inflows in the short term but conflicting long-term signals.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Pool has an internal diagnostic score of 1.34 (weak), with 8 bearish indicators and no bullish ones in the last 5 days. The key bearish indicators include:

• Williams %R Overbought: score 1 (weak)
• RSI Overbought: score 1 (weak)
• Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern: score 1 (weak)
• MACD Death Cross: score 2.79 (neutral)
• Ex-Dividend Date and Dividend Record Date: score 1 each (weak)

Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days):

• 2025-08-28: Bearish Engulfing + Dividend Payable Date
• 2025-08-14: WR Overbought + Ex-Dividend Date + Dividend Record Date
• 2025-08-13: WR Overbought + RSI Overbought + MACD Golden Cross

This combination of signals suggests a weakening momentum and poor trend quality in the near term.

Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: Given the weak technical signals and conflicting analyst views, it may be wise to consider waiting for a pull-back or to monitor the stock with caution. The current trend suggests risk of further decline, especially if key support levels are breached in the coming weeks.