Stock Analysis | Occidental Petroleum Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Despite a recent 7.69% price rise, technical indicators signal weakness and suggest investors avoid OXY for now.

2. News Highlights

Recent headlines paint a mixed picture for the oil and gas sector, with both growth and regulatory concerns:

• Colombia boosts E&P investment: Colombia's industry group expects a 8% jump in hydrocarbon investment in 2025, reaching $4.68 billion, which could benefit global oil producers.
• U.S. policy shifts: The Trump administration is pushing for oil drilling in Alaska, highlighting continued political support for fossil fuel expansion in key regions.
• Private equity exits rise: Global private equity exits in oil and gas reached $18.54 billion across 17 deals in early 2025, showing increased activity and liquidity in the sector.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided on OXY, with UBS being the only high-quality institution with a 57.1% historical win rate. Morgan Stanley and Melius Research have poor historical performance, with 0% win rates. The simple average rating is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 1.19, showing a significant mismatch with the recent 7.69% price increase.

Key fundamental factors and their model scores:

• Revenue-MV: 2.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 0.88 (scaled metric).
• Inventory turnover ratio: 3.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 2.43.
• Profit-MV: 1.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: -0.44.
• Net income-Revenue: 3.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: -22.52%.
• Income tax / Total profit (%): 1.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 31.74%.
• Long-term debt to working capital ratio (%): 1.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 95.93%.
• Fixed assets turnover ratio: 2.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 0.19.
• Total assets turnover ratio: 2.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 0.16.
• Asset-MV: 4.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 1.35 (scaled metric).
• Inventory turnover days: 2.00 internal diagnostic score (0-10), value: 74.08.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money and institutional investors are showing negative sentiment, while retail (small) investors are in positive territory. The overall inflow ratio is 0.4945, with large and extra-large flows trending negatively (0.4962 and 0.4950, respectively). This suggests caution from major players, despite some retail optimism. The fund-flow score is a positive 7.85 (internal diagnostic score), indicating strong capital movement but a negative trend for medium and large-sized investors.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, OXY is in a weak position with 3 bearish and 0 bullish indicators in the last five days. Our technical score is 1.89 (internal diagnostic score), and the overall trend suggests avoiding the stock:

• Williams %R Overbought: 2.80 internal diagnostic score (0-10) — indicating a neutral rise with poor historical returns.
• RSI Overbought: 1.86 internal diagnostic score — signaling a neutral bias with historically negative performance.
• Bullish Engulfing: 1.00 internal diagnostic score — a bearish bias with low win rate (28.57%) and negative returns.

Recent chart patterns: Over the past five days, OXY has seen repeated signals of overbought conditions via WR and RSI, with a bearish engulfing pattern on August 27. These patterns suggest a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

6. Conclusion

OXY's fundamentals are mixed, with strong asset and revenue metrics but weak profit and debt indicators. Analysts are split, and the technical outlook is bearish. While institutional investors have strong inflow activity, the overall trend and signal quality remain poor. For now, consider waiting for a pull-back or a clearer bullish signal before considering new positions. Keep an eye on the next earnings and sector-specific regulatory updates, which may influence the price direction more significantly.