Stock Analysis | Occidental Petroleum Outlook - Navigating Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Expectations

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Occidental Petroleum’s technical outlook is weak, and internal diagnostic scores indicate caution. The price has risen 7.69% recently, but the trend looks fragile and possibly misaligned with market expectations.

2. News Highlights

• Colombia E&P Investment Jump: Colombia could see a 8% rise in 2025 oil and gas E&P investment, reaching $4.68 billion. While not directly linked to OXY, increased global upstream spending could support energy prices and indirectly benefit producers like Occidental.
• Tinubu Executive Order in Nigeria: Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu introduced incentives to improve cost efficiency and attract investment in the upstream oil and gas sector. This could have positive knock-on effects for global energy markets, including OXY’s operations.
• Private Equity Exits in Fossil Fuels: Fossil fuel private equity exits are surging and could surpass 2024 levels, with $18.54 billion recorded in the first half of 2025. This trend highlights continued investor appetite for energy assets, which may stabilize or boost OXY’s valuation amid broader industry activity.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: 3.00 (simple mean)

Weighted Rating Score: 1.19 (performance-weighted)

Consistency of Ratings: Analyst ratings are all "Neutral," but the low performance-weighted score highlights a mismatch between expectations and actual results.

Alignment with Price Trend: The recent 7.69% price rise contrasts with a generally pessimistic market outlook. Analysts are cautious, with one firm (UBS) showing a moderate win rate and two others (Morgan Stanley and Melius Research) posting weak or zero success in past predictions.

Key Fundamental Factor Values:

• Revenue-MV: 88.30%
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 74.59%
• Inventory turnover ratio: 2.43
• Inventory turnover days: 74.08
• Non-current assets / Total assets: 89.36%
• Fixed assets turnover ratio: 0.19
• Total assets turnover ratio: 0.16

These metrics reflect a mixed fundamental profile. While revenue utilization is strong, asset turnover ratios are low, indicating underutilized capital or operational inefficiencies.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows for Occidental Petroleum are showing a negative trend, with large and extra-large institutional investors pulling back. The fund-flow score is 7.85 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), indicating overall positive retail and small-cap inflows, but bearish activity from larger block traders. Small investors are showing more optimism than large ones, as reflected in the Small_inflow_ratio (0.50) vs. Large_inflow_ratio (0.49). This divergence could signal a potential short-term correction in the stock price.

5. Key Technical Signals

Occidental’s technical indicators are largely bearish. The technical score is 1.89 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), reflecting weak momentum and risk of a decline. Here are the key signals:

• Williams %R Overbought: Score of 2.8 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) suggests a neutral to bearish signal, historically associated with a negative average return of -1.13% per signal.
• RSI Overbought: Score of 1.86 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) — a moderate bearish signal with an average return of -0.62%.
• Bullish Engulfing: Score of 1.0 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) — a very weak signal with a 28.57% win rate, indicating a high likelihood of failure in a bullish context.

Recent Chart Patterns (Past 5 Days):

• 2025-08-26: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-25: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-28: WR Overbought + RSI Overbought
• 2025-08-27: WR Overbought + Bullish Engulfing
• 2025-08-29: WR Overbought + RSI Overbought

This pattern indicates repeated overbought conditions and failed bullish attempts. Key Insight: Bearish signals dominate the chart (3 bearish vs 0 bullish), and the overall trend remains weak — traders are advised to avoid or hedge their exposure to OXY in the near term.

6. Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: Given the weak technical indicators, bearish institutional sentiment, and mixed analyst outlook, we recommend investors consider avoiding OXY for now or using any short-term rallies to take profits. The risk-reward profile remains unattractive, and a pullback could be in the offing. For long-term investors, keep an eye on upcoming production guidance and cost efficiency measures to assess whether fundamentals can turn the tide.