Stock Analysis | Monolithic Power Outlook - A Weak Technical Picture Despite Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Monolithic Power (MPWR) is currently showing a 2.59% price rise, but technical indicators are flashing red flags with a weak internal diagnostic score of 1.9 (0-10), suggesting caution.

News Highlights

• May 28: US Semiconductors ETF Faces $750M Outflow – The recent massive outflow from the SOXX ETF signals shifting investor sentiment in the semiconductor sector, potentially affecting MPWR’s demand.
• May 30: McKinsey on Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains – New research highlights how U.S. tariffs could reshape semiconductor supply chains, with possible impacts on MPWR’s global operations and margins.
• May 30: Japan-U.S. Cooperation on Rare Earths and Semiconductors – Proposed joint efforts aim to counter China’s dominance and reduce trade deficits, offering long-term strategic support for semiconductor manufacturers like MPWR.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have provided a mixed outlook, with a simple average rating of 4.10 and a performance-weighted average of 3.71. The ratings are not consistent, with 9 active institutions showing a range of Neutral (3), Strong Buy (4), and Buy (3) ratings in the past 20 days. Despite the mixed signals, the current price trend of +2.59% aligns with the slightly positive market expectation.

Key fundamental factors:

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• EV/EBIT: 83.14 (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY): 29.13% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Total profit (YoY): 53.17% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY): 38.68% (internal diagnostic score: 3)

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is showing confidence in Monolithic Power, with positive inflows across all categories. The overall inflow ratio is 0.5274, with large, extra-large, and institutional blocks all showing inflows above 0.50. This suggests that long-term investors and institutional players are continuing to add to positions, despite mixed technical signals. Retail flow is also trending positive, with small-cap inflows at 0.5021.

The internal diagnostic fund flow score is 7.62 (0-10), indicating strong institutional support and positive market positioning.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators for Monolithic Power are currently very bearish, with 4 out of 4 indicators flashing warning signs:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 2.04 – Suggesting a weak rise in momentum.
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 1 – A strong bearish signal historically associated with -3.17% average returns.
• Marubozu White: Internal diagnostic score: 1 – Another bearish pattern linked to poor historical outcomes.

Recent chart patterns (from recent_indicators_by_date):

• 2025-09-05: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-28: MACD Death Cross
• 2025-08-26: Marubozu White
• 2025-08-21: MACD Death Cross

The overall key technical insight is that the trend is weak and the risk of a pullback is high. With 4 bearish indicators and 0 bullish, the technical outlook is clearly negative.

Conclusion

Monolithic Power is facing a technically weak environment with 4 bearish signals and no bullish ones, and an internal diagnostic technical score of 1.9 (0-10). While analysts remain somewhat optimistic and institutional money continues to flow in, the chart is sending caution signals.

Actionable takeaway: Investors should consider avoiding or hedging long positions in MPWR until the technical picture improves. A pullback or clearer bullish signals may offer a better entry point in the near term.