Stock Analysis | Mondelez Outlook - A Mixed Picture of Fundamentals and Weak Technicals

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Mondelez is showing a mixed market outlook with strong fundamentals but a weak technical profile, as reflected in our internal diagnostic scores.

The stock recently rose by 3.01%, but technical indicators paint a weak picture. With 4 bearish signals and no bullish ones in our analysis, we caution investors to proceed with caution.

2. News Highlights

Recent Developments:

• India’s Processed Food Exports Surge: India's processed food exports hit a record $2.13 billion in April 2025. As Mondelez is a global snack giant, this suggests potential tailwinds for international food demand.
• Diabetic Food Market Growth: The diabetic food market is projected to grow to $24.86 billion by 2033, driven by rising demand for low-sugar and low-carb products. Mondelez, with its portfolio of branded snacks, could benefit from innovation trends in this segment.
• BigBasket Enters 10-Minute Food Delivery: Indian e-commerce player BigBasket is testing 10-minute food delivery with Starbucks and Qmin in Bengaluru. This points to growing consumer interest in fast food services, which could indirectly support Mondelez's snack sales.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score (simple mean): 3.67

Weighted Rating Score (performance-weighted): 3.29

Rating Consistency: Analysts are somewhat divided, with a mix of "Buy" and "Neutral" ratings in recent weeks. However, price trends and expectations are generally aligned.

Our proprietary model gives Mondelez a fundamental score of 9.39 (internal diagnostic score, 10 = best), reflecting robust earnings and asset returns. Here’s how the key factors stack up:

• Annualized Return on Equity (ROE): 7.85% – Score: 3
• Return on Assets (ROA): 0.91% – Score: 1
• Net Income to Revenue: -20.32% – Score: 4
• Basic EPS YoY Growth: -46.67% – Score: 1
• Cash Flow from Operating Activities (CFOA): 0.43% – Score: 2

While earnings and cash flow are under pressure, the company’s strong return on equity and overall profitability justify a high fundamental score.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Mondelez is seeing a mixed flow pattern across different investor segments. While small and medium-sized investors are showing a positive inflow, large and extra-large institutional investors are pulling back.

• Small Inflow Ratio: 50.89% – Positive trend
• Medium Inflow Ratio: 50.51% – Positive trend
• Large Inflow Ratio: 51.33% – Positive trend
• Extra-Large Inflow Ratio: 41.57% – Negative trend

Overall, the fund flow score is 7.55 (internal diagnostic score, 10 = best), indicating a generally positive flow from retail and mid-sized investors, but caution is warranted due to outflows from large players.

5. Key Technical Signals

Mondelez is currently showing a very weak technical profile, with 4 bearish signals and no bullish ones in the recent 5-day analysis. Our proprietary technical score is 1.78 (internal diagnostic score, 10 = best), indicating a strong risk of further decline.

Key Indicators (internal diagnostic scores):

• Williams %R Overbought: 1.31 – Biased bearish
• RSI Oversold: 1.91 – Neutral bias
• MACD Golden Cross: 1.34 – Biased bearish
• Williams %R Oversold: 2.57 – Neutral rise

Recent chart patterns include multiple instances of Williams %R Overbought and Oversold, with a MACD Golden Cross signal on August 20. These mixed signals suggest a volatile and potentially bearish momentum.

6. Conclusion

Mondelez is a fundamentally strong company with a solid earnings history and strong ROE, but its recent technicals are very weak. Given the internal technical score of 1.78 and 4 bearish signals, we recommend investors consider waiting for a clearer trend or more favorable entry point.

Watch for follow-up reports on earnings and macroeconomic data, as these could tip the balance between caution and potential upside.