Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - Navigating Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) is showing a weak technical profile, with bearish signals outweighing bullish ones and a declining price trend (-2.10% recently). This suggests investors should proceed with caution and consider avoiding the stock for now.

News Highlights

Recent news shows a mix of industry-specific and global developments, with limited direct impact on Ingersoll Rand:

• Farm machinery recovery in Brazil could indirectly benefit IR, as it noted a 12% revenue increase from November 2024 to February 2025. However, this is a long-term positive and does not address near-term volatility.
• India's push for indigenous food processing machinery highlights global demand for industrial equipment, but there's no mention of IR's involvement in this sector.
• Changes to US vaccine policy and visa restrictions for students are more macroeconomic in nature and unlikely to directly affect IR's operations.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst sentiment is mixed but neutral overall. Here's a breakdown:

Analyst Ratings

• Average (simple mean): 3.50
• Weighted (performance-based): 3.22
• Consistency: Analysts are fairly aligned, with two "Buy" and two "Neutral" ratings over the last 20 days.

However, the current price is down 2.10%, which contrasts with the neutral to slightly positive analyst ratings. This mismatch suggests market skepticism is not fully reflected in analyst expectations.

Fundamental Factors

• EV/EBIT: 148.57x (internal diagnostic score: 1.82)
• Revenue-MV: 0.0256 (score: 2.0)
• Basic EPS (YoY growth): -81.25% (score: 0.0)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY): -81.61% (score: 0.0)
• Cash-MV: -0.32x (score: 1.82)

The fundamental profile shows a concerning drop in earnings and margins, with low scores reinforcing weak performance. Revenue appears to be the only positive, but it's not enough to offset the negatives.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are leaning negative, which contrasts with positive inflows seen in smaller retail positions:

• Overall inflow ratio: 49.45%
• Block trend: Negative (inflow ratio: 49.13%)
• Small retail inflow ratio: 50.64% (positive trend)
• Large and extra-large investor trends: Negative in both cases

This divergence suggests retail investors are optimistic, while institutional flows are cautious. The internal diagnostic score for fund flow trends is 7.8 (good), but caution is advised as large players are withdrawing.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators point to a volatile and uncertain direction for IR:

Recent Chart Patterns

• 2025-08-02: WR Oversold signal detected (internal score: 2.96)
• 2025-08-19: MACD Golden Cross (bullish, internal score: 7.53)
• 2025-08-15: Bearish Engulfing (bearish, internal score: 1.76)
• 2025-08-22 and 2025-08-26: WR Overbought (internal score: 2.49)

Key Technical Insights

• Bullish indicators: 1 (MACD Golden Cross)
• Bearish indicators: 3 (WR Oversold, WR Overbought, Bearish Engulfing)
• Overall trend: Weak, with a recommendation to avoid
• Technical score: 3.69 (internal diagnostic score)

The chart remains mixed, with bearish signals dominating in recent weeks. Investors should watch for a stronger bullish confirmation before entering long positions.

Conclusion

Ingersoll Rand (IR) is in a tricky situation, with mixed analyst ratings, weak fundamentals, and a technical profile that favors caution. While a MACD Golden Cross is a positive sign, it’s not enough to offset the bearish signals. We recommend watching the stock from the sidelines for now and waiting for a clearer, stronger bullish setup. If you're already long, consider tightening stop-loss levels given the current volatility and weak technical backdrop.