Stock Analysis | Fortive Outlook - A Bearish Technical Signal with Mixed Analyst Ratings

1. Market Snapshot

Fortive (FTV) is under pressure technically with bearish indicators dominating and a weak internal diagnostic score of 3.36. The stock has seen a recent price drop of -4.03%, despite a neutral to mixed analyst sentiment.

2. News Highlights

• May 29: Farm machinery industry eyes modest recovery – Sales stabilized in Q4 2024, with revenue rising 12% year-over-year, indicating potential tailwinds for Fortive’s industrial segments. This could help long-term fundamentals.
• May 30: GMTech Inc. Announces the Launch of NEW WEB3 Smartphone – While unrelated to Fortive directly, it highlights ongoing tech innovation in hardware and software, which may indirectly support demand for sensors and components.
• May 31: ETFGI reports record ETF assets in Asia Pacific – The $1.25 trillion in assets could boost broader market liquidity, benefiting all large-cap names like Fortive. However, this is a macro-level benefit rather than a stock-specific event.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The average analyst rating for FTV is 3.25 (simple mean), while the performance-weighted rating is 2.74. Analysts are not aligned — three of four recent calls were "Neutral" and one was "Buy". This dispersion aligns with the current price decline, suggesting caution among professionals.

Key fundamental values (with internal diagnostic scores in parentheses):

• EV/EBIT: 61.12x (4.13)
• PE: 108.18x (4.13)
• ROA: 0.91% (4.13)
• ROE: 1.60% (4.13)
• Net profit YoY growth: -15.90% (4.13)
• Net profit margin (NPM): 10.97% (4.13)
• Cash to market value (Cash-MV): -16.79% (4.13)
• Asset to market value (Asset-MV): 28.74% (4.13)
• Revenue to market value (Revenue-MV): -8.53% (4.13)

The fundamentals remain mixed, with moderate scores but no clear positive momentum. The high PE and low ROE suggest valuations are stretched relative to earnings power.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Fortive is seeing negative overall fund flow trends, with both big-money and retail investors pulling back.

• Big-money (block) inflow ratio: 45.94% – Still relatively high, but trending down.
• Large and extra-large inflow ratios: ~46% – Suggesting institutional caution.
• Small investor inflow ratio: 48.57% – Retail sentiment is also weak.

Internal diagnostic score for fund flows is 7.4 (good), but the negative trend indicates a shift in risk appetite for the stock.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, Fortive is underperforming with bearish signals in control and a low internal diagnostic score of 3.36. Over the last 5 days, bearish signals have outnumbered bullish ones (2 vs. 0), and key indicators are mixed.

Indicator Breakdown:

• WR Oversold – Internal score: 2.78 – This oscillator is in oversold territory, but the signal is neutral in predictive power.
• Bearish Engulfing – Internal score: 3.94 – A strong bearish reversal pattern with moderate historical effectiveness (50% win rate).

Recent chart activity by date:

• August 11, 2025: WR Oversold
• August 6, 2025: WR Oversold and Bearish Engulfing
• August 8, 2025: WR Oversold

This cluster of bearish signals suggests fading momentum and a weak short-term outlook.

6. Conclusion

Given the bearish technical signals, weak institutional inflow, and diverging analyst views, Fortive may not be a strong buy at this time. Investors should consider waiting for a potential rebound or clearer signs of stabilization. Watch for follow-up analyst commentary and earnings updates for further clarity on the near-term direction.