Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiment Call for Cautious Strategy

1. Market Snapshot: Mixed Signals and Volatility

Deere’s (DE) market environment shows signs of instability, with internal diagnostic scores on technical analysis at 4.15 and a “Weak technology, need to be cautious” label. The stock is currently trending downward by 2.54%, despite recent bullish indicators like the WR Oversold and Earnings Release Date. Analysts show a wide range of opinions, with a simple average rating of 4.25 and a performance-weighted score of 2.34.

2. News Highlights: Sector Glimmers of Hope

• May 29, 2025 - Farm Machinery Eyes Modest Recovery Pedro Estevão Bastos of Abimaq noted a 12% rise in revenue from November 2024 to February 2025, suggesting early signs of stabilization in the farm machinery sector. This could eventually benefit Deere, a major player in the space.
• May 22, 2025 - Titan Machinery Beats Q1 Earnings Competitor Titan Machinery outperformed expectations, highlighting a potential rebound in the agricultural equipment industry. Such sector strength could support Deere in the long term if demand trends improve.
• May 31, 2025 - ETF Growth in Asia Pacific Reaches $1.25 Trillion A broader market shift in investor behavior could influence capital flows into industrial and cyclical stocks like Deere, especially if the sector shows improvement.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals: A Tangled Web of Expectations

Analyst sentiment is mixed, with four active firms rating DE as follows:

• DA Davidson: Strong Buy (poor historical performance, 0.00% win rate)
• Baird: Neutral (100.00% win rate, but negative average return of -1.52%)
• Oppenheimer: Buy (0.00% win rate in the last 20 days)
• Truist Securities: Strong Buy (33.30% win rate with -1.80% average return)

The simple average rating is 4.25, while the performance-weighted score drops to 2.34, indicating a lack of alignment between current ratings and historical performance. The current price decline (-2.54%) correlates with the weighted expectations, suggesting the market is pricing in caution.

Fundamental Highlights

• Price-to-Earnings (PE): 90.71 (model score: 6.12)
• EV/EBIT: 65.86 (model score: 6.12)
• Net Profit Margin: 51.34% (model score: 6.12)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY): -5.54% (model score: 6.12)
• Basic EPS Growth (YoY): -33.45% (model score: 6.12)

These mixed results reflect a company with strong asset leverage but weak earnings growth. The fundamental score of 6.12 signals moderate underlying strength but with areas of concern.

4. Money-Flow Trends: Big-Money Caution, Retail Hesitation

Big money is staying cautious: the fund-flow score for DE is 7.8, with a negative block trend and a negative overall trend. Retail investors, however, are more optimistic, with a positive small-inflow ratio of 0.50 and a positive small trend. The contrast suggests a market in flux, where large investors are hedging while smaller traders are dipping their toes in.

5. Key Technical Signals: Volatility and Unclear Momentum

• WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 7.77 (bullish bias, 63.16% win rate)
• Earnings Release Date: 8.13 (strong bullish, 100.00% win rate)
• MACD Death Cross: 2.14 (neutral bias, 42.86% win rate)
• Dividend Announcement Date: 1.00 (bearish bias, 0.00% win rate)

Recent chart patterns (last 5 days) include the Bullish Engulfing on August 15 and 27, and Bearish Engulfing on August 25. The mixed signals confirm the key insight: technical momentum is weak and direction is unclear, calling for careful monitoring of price action and volume.

6. Conclusion: A Watch-List Play

With a fundamental score of 6.12 and technical score of 4.15, Deere presents a complex picture of moderate value and uncertain momentum. Analysts are divided, with some bullish calls but poor historical performance. Investors are advised to wait for clearer signals—particularly from earnings and upcoming sector data—before committing capital. Given the current volatility and technical weakness, consider waiting for a pull-back before entering a position.