Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Technical Weakness and Strong Fund Flows

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Deere (DE) faces weak technical signals with an internal diagnostic score of 4.26, but sees positive fund flows with a 7.84 score.

Recent performance has seen a drop of -4.26% in price, contrasting with a generally optimistic flow of money from both retail and institutional investors.

News Highlights

Here are three recent stories with possible implications for Deere:

• Farm Machinery Industry Eyes Modest Recovery: Sales in the sector have stabilized, with a 12% revenue increase from November 2024 to February 2025. This suggests gradual confidence in the agriculture equipment market.
• Asia-Pacific ETF Industry Hits $1.25 Trillion in Assets: ETFGI reported record assets for the ETF industry in Asia (excluding Japan). This broad market trend could influence investor appetite for equities like Deere.
• New York Times Stock Boosted on AI Deal: While not directly related to Deere, the broader AI narrative (and its impact on media and tech stocks) might indirectly affect capital flows in the market.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts show a mixed view, with recent ratings split between "Strong Buy," "Buy," and "Neutral." The simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 3.06, reflecting varying confidence in past performance. These scores are at odds with the stock's recent price drop, indicating potential dissonance between sentiment and execution.

Fundamental Factors

• Revenue-MV score: 3.00 (value: 0.2177)
• Net income-Revenue score: 2.00 (value: 51.09 %)
• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate) score: 2.00 (value: -33.45 %)
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate) score: 2.00 (value: -5.82 %)
• Income tax / Total profit score: 2.00 (value: 17.51 %)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth rate) score: 3.00 (value: -35.14 %)
• Asset-MV score: 3.00 (value: 0.2704)
• Cash-MV score: 2.00 (value: -24.46 %)

Money-Flow Trends

Deere is seeing a positive trend in fund flows, with an overall inflow ratio of 0.5038. This suggests that both retail and institutional investors are increasingly optimistic about the stock:

• Small retail trend: positive, with 50.84% inflow ratio
• Medium-sized flows: positive, at 50.25% inflow ratio
• Large and extra-large institutional flows: mixed, with large at 51.43% positive and extra-large at 49.91% negative

The internal fund flow score is 7.84, placing it in the "good" category, suggesting strong support from institutional money despite technical concerns.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators are mixed, with 2 bullish and 4 bearish signals in the last 5 days. Here are the most notable ones by date:

• August 14:
  • WR Oversold (internal score: 7.6): Bullish bias detected
  • MACD Death Cross (internal score: 1.0): Strongly bearish
  • Earnings Release Date (internal score: 8.1): Strong bullish signal
• August 15:
  • Bullish Engulfing (internal score: 1.9): Weak bullish signal

Overall trend is summarized as "Weak technology, need to be cautious." The key insight is that the market is in a volatile state, with unclear direction and balanced long/short signals.

Conclusion

Deere is in a tug-of-war between strong inflows and weak technical signals. With a fundamental score of 6.46 and positive fund flow score of 7.84, the business underpinnings look better than the chart. However, technical indicators are mixed with several bearish signals (including a MACD Death Cross) and limited clarity in momentum.

Actionable takeaway: Consider holding off on new positions and watch the Earnings Release Date for a potential catalyst. Use pull-backs in the 5–7% range as possible entry points if the fundamentals continue to hold up.