Stock Analysis | Carrier Global Outlook - A Deep Diver on Weak Technicals, Mixed Analysts, and Mixed Money Flows

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Carrier Global (CARR) is underperforming technically with bearish signals dominating, but recent money flows show positive signs. Stance: Caution is advised.

News Highlights

• Zara's Ortega Buys €250M Blackstone Building in Barcelona – While not directly involving Carrier Global, this massive real estate acquisition highlights a trend in capital deployment and could indirectly influence investor sentiment in construction and building-related equities.
• Telcos Across Five Continents Are Building NVIDIA-Powered Sovereign AI Infrastructure – This global AI infrastructure expansion could influence broader market sentiment, but its direct impact on CARR is unclear.
• TSMC Evaluates Building Advanced Chip Plant in the UAE – Another major industrial build project, this one in semiconductor manufacturing, could reinforce long-term confidence in construction and infrastructure sectors.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst sentiment on Carrier Global is mixed, with a simple average rating of 3.75 and a weighted performance-based rating of 2.21. The ratings are not in strong alignment with each other or with the recent price trend, which has fallen by -3.31%.

Key Fundamental Factors and Their Internal Diagnostic Scores

• PE Ratio: 100.15 (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00) – Suggests overvaluation.
• ROA: 1.64% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00) – Indicates weak profitability relative to assets.
• GPM: 28.94% (Internal diagnostic score: 4.00) – Shows moderate gross margin health.
• EBIT/Total Operating Revenue: 13.53% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00) – A weak operational efficiency signal.
• Net Profit Margin on Total Assets: 5.64% (Internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – Indicates weak asset utilization for profit generation.

Money-Flow Trends

Money flow for Carrier Global is showing signs of mixed interest. While the overall inflow ratio is 50.25%, suggesting a slight net inflow, the breakdown reveals:

• Large and extra-large funds are showing positive flows, with the latter showing a 51.92% and 49.30% inflow ratio respectively.
• Small funds are also positive at 50.08%, but medium flows are 49.79%, slightly negative.

This suggests big-money investors are optimistic, while retail investors remain cautious.

Key Technical Signals

Technical analysis for Carrier Global is bearish, with an overall internal diagnostic score of 2.49, and 4 bearish signals versus 0 bullish ones. Key indicators and their scores:

• Williams %R Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 3.01 – Neutral with mixed returns.
• Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 2.30 – Suggests downward momentum.
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – A strong bearish signal.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 3.64 – A rare positive but recent signal.

Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days):

• 2025-09-05: MACD Golden Cross
• 2025-08-28: Bearish Engulfing
• 2025-09-03: WR Oversold and MACD Death Cross

These mixed signals suggest short-term volatility but no clear bullish trend. The overall technical signal is a “Weak” trend and the recommendation is to “Avoid”.

Conclusion

While money flows show positive momentum and some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, the technical outlook for Carrier Global remains weak. With 4 bearish indicators outpacing any positive signs, and fundamentals showing mixed signals, investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pull-back before committing capital. Keep an eye on earnings and potential follow-up news that could shift the balance of momentum.