Stock Analysis | Amcor Outlook - Technical Weakness Looms, but Strong Fundamentals and Money Flow Offer Mixed Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Amcor is facing a weak technical outlook with bearish signals dominating, but its strong fundamentals and positive money flows suggest caution rather than panic.

2. News Highlights

• Oreo’s Parent Company Sues Aldi: Mondelez International is accusing Aldi of copying packaging for snacks like Oreos and Chips Ahoy. While this doesn’t directly affect Amcor, it highlights growing competitive pressure in the packaging sector, potentially influencing long-term demand.
• Ball Announces CFO Departure: Ball, a key competitor in the packaging industry, announced the departure of its CFO. This could impact market sentiment for the sector, though it remains to be seen how it will affect Amcor directly.
• EPE USA Advances Sustainable Packaging: EPE USA is promoting reusable and recyclable packaging solutions to meet consumer demand for eco-friendly products. This aligns with Amcor’s sustainability goals and could signal long-term growth potential in the green packaging market.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Consensus:

• Simple average rating: 3.00 (Neutral)
• Performance-weighted rating: 2.08 (Bearish)
• Rating consistency: There are differences among analysts.
• Price trend: The stock is in a 9.65% decline over the recent period. This aligns with the bearish weighted rating, suggesting that both analysts and the market are cautious about near-term performance.

Key Fundamentals and Model Scores:

• Net assets per share (growth rate compared to beginning of year): -2.4994% (internal diagnostic score: 1/10)
• Shareholders’ equity attributable to parent company / Total liabilities: 30.58% (score: 3/10)
• Operating cycle: 119.89 days (score: 4/10)
• Total operating revenue (YoY growth rate): -1.4939% (score: 4/10)
• PCF (Price-to-Cash Flow): 34.91 (score: 4/10)
• PE (Price-to-Earnings): 89.47 (score: 4/10)
• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate): 23.7374% (score: 2/10)
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): -30.2632% (score: 4/10)
• Cash-UP: 0.230569 (score: 1/10)
• Operating revenue (YoY growth rate): -1.4939% (score: 4/10)

4. Money-Flow Trends

Amcor is currently experiencing positive overall fund flows, with large and extra-large investors contributing the most. The overall inflow ratio is 50.51%, indicating that big money is still showing some interest in the stock. However, small investors are in a negative trend, suggesting retail pessimism. This mixed signal suggests that while institutional confidence is strong, retail investors are pulling back, which could signal a near-term test of market sentiment.

5. Key Technical Signals

• RSI Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 3.84/10 – This suggests the RSI is in oversold territory, but the score is still modest, indicating limited immediate reversal potential.
• WR Oversold: Score: 2.74/10 – The Williams %R is also in oversold territory, but its low score means the signal is weaker and less reliable.
• Marubozu White: Score: 1.84/10 – This candlestick pattern is typically bullish, but the very low score suggests it carries limited weight in the current context.

Recent Chart Activity:

• On August 21, 2025: WR Oversold and Marubozu White signals appeared.
• On August 18, 2025: RSI Oversold and WR Oversold appeared together, hinting at a possible bottoming process.
• On August 15 and 20, 2025: WR Oversold was again in play, reinforcing the bearish trend.

Key Insight: The technical side is weak, and it is suggested to avoid the stock. With 3 bearish indicators and 0 bullish, the momentum is clearly on the downside.

6. Conclusion

Amcor’s fundamentals and money flows are relatively strong, but its technical outlook is unattractive. The internal diagnostic score of 2.81/10 underlines the weak technical condition. While the stock has support from institutional investors and some fundamental resilience, the bearish signals are clear. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a clearer pullback or positive catalysts before entering a position. For now, a cautious stance is warranted.