Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) Market Overview

• XLMJPY closed higher at 57.84 after hitting a 24-hour high of 58.58 and testing key resistance levels.
• Volatility surged with a peak-to-trough swing of 8.6% and a total turnover of ¥257,367.
• MACD and RSI suggest momentum is diverging from price, hinting at potential exhaustion.
• A large-volume reversal candle at 57.3–57.45 indicates institutional interest.
• Price action shows a bearish divergence with volume in the final 3 hours, raising caution.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 56.31 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 58.58, a low of 56.05, and closed at 57.84 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair saw total volume of 513,932.7 XLM and a notional turnover of ¥257,367 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a strong bullish reversal pattern near 57.30–57.45, where buying picked up sharply on above-average volume. A bearish divergence emerged in the final 3 hours as price fell to 57.84 while volume waned. A key support level appears at 57.00–57.10, where price tested twice and bounced. On the daily chart, 57.40–57.50 appears to be a short-term resistance cluster, which was briefly pierced before a pullback.

A morning star pattern formed around 04:00–06:00 ET, suggesting a potential bottoming signal, followed by a bullish engulfing candle as price pushed above 57.30. The session concluded with a long lower wick at 57.84–57.93, indicating rejection at higher levels.

Key Resistance:

57.40–57.50, 57.60–57.70

Key Support:

57.10–57.20, 56.80–56.90

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were closely aligned during the afternoon and evening hours, converging near 57.30–57.35. By the morning, the 20 MA outpaced the 50 MA, forming a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 57.25, with the 200-period MA at 57.05, suggesting the pair is in a bullish bias, though not decisively above the 200 MA.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive during the late afternoon and remained above the signal line for much of the session, indicating bullish momentum. However, the histogram began to contract after 10:00 PM ET, suggesting weakening upward drive. RSI reached a high of 65–68 during the late morning before retreating to 54 by close. While not in overbought territory, the RSI divergence with price in the final hours suggests potential for a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked as price moved from 56.05 to 58.58, pushing well above the upper Bollinger Band for a brief period. The bands expanded significantly during the morning hours, with price testing the upper boundary at 58.27–58.32 before retreating. By the end of the session, price had settled inside the bands, with the upper boundary at 58.20 and the lower at 57.00. The contraction of bands in the final hour indicates a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the afternoon hours, with a 15-minute candle at 08:45 ET printing over 55,223.6 XLM and another at 12:45 ET printing 47,117.1 XLM, indicating large-scale buying and selling pressure. Turnover mirrored the volume profile, with the largest notional trade occurring at 12:45 ET, where turnover reached ¥2,662,351. A bearish divergence emerged in the final 3 hours as price dipped to 57.84 while volume and turnover declined, indicating reduced conviction from sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was observed around 57.35–57.40, where the price stalled twice during the day and failed to break through. The 38.2% level at 57.10–57.20 was tested in the afternoon and evening and held as a key support zone. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bullish leg is near 57.70, which is a potential area for renewed selling pressure if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for XLMJPY could involve a breakout-based trade using a 20-period and 50-period moving average crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with confirmation from a bullish engulfing pattern and RSI above 50. A long position would be triggered on a close above the 20 MA with volume above the 20-period moving average of volume. A stop-loss would be placed below the nearest Fibonacci support level, and a take-profit target would be set at the 38.2% retracement level of the recent bullish wave. This strategy would aim to capture short-term bullish momentum while managing risk through defined support levels.