Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) Market Overview: 24-Hour Bullish Momentum Amid Key Resistance

• Price surged 8.5% over 24 hours, closing at 60.91 yen after a bullish breakout.
• High volume concentrated in late-night and early-morning buying waves.
• RSI near overbought levels and MACD in strong bullish territory.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, confirming increased volatility.
• Key resistance at 61.15 and support at 59.92 defined critical turning points.

The Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) pair opened at 57.76 yen on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 60.91 yen on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached an intraday high of 61.15 yen and a low of 57.76 yen during the 24-hour window. Total traded volume was 343,708.2, and notional turnover amounted to a robust 20,872,727.6 yen, indicating strong interest and participation.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a clear bullish trend over the 24-hour period, forming a strong ascending channel. Key support levels emerged at 59.92, 59.62, and 59.38, all of which were tested and held, preventing a significant retracement. Resistance levels at 61.15, 60.85, and 60.55 were sequentially tested and broken, with the final close at 60.91 confirming a breakout. Candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing pattern at the 05:00–05:15 ET timeframe and a morning star formation around 10:30–10:45 ET. A doji formed at 14:45–15:00 ET, hinting at a short-term consolidation phase.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in bullish alignment, with the price staying well above the 50-period line for the majority of the session. The 50-period MA rose from 58.72 to 59.84, confirming the upward momentum. On a daily chart basis, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are not available in the dataset, but the 15-minute averages strongly indicate a continuation of the upward trend.

The MACD histogram remains positive and has shown a steady increase in bullish momentum, with the signal line crossing above the zero line earlier in the session. RSI, which started at 42 early in the day, surged to over 76 by the close, signaling potential overbought conditions and a possible pullback.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility increased significantly during the late evening and early morning hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of 0.25 (at 10:45–11:00 ET) to a wide range of 1.25 (by 08:00–08:15 ET). The price closed the session near the upper Bollinger Band (60.94), suggesting continuation of the bullish momentum. A contraction in the bands was observed at 01:00–01:15 ET, which could have signaled a potential breakout, and this was indeed confirmed later in the session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 31,862.1 at 15:15–15:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp move higher. Notional turnover mirrored this, peaking at over 20 million yen during the same window. The divergence between volume and price was minimal, indicating strong alignment between buyer interest and price action. The late-night hours (00:00–03:00 ET) saw a sustained volume buildup, which helped establish a strong foundation for the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing low (57.76) and high (61.15), the key retracement levels are as follows:
- 23.6% at 59.47
- 38.2% at 59.74
- 50% at 59.46
- 61.8% at 60.01
- 78.6% at 60.36

The price found support at 59.92, close to the 61.8% level (60.01), and then broke out above 61.15. This suggests a strong continuation pattern rather than a retracement. On the daily timeframe, the Fibonacci levels are not fully calculable from this data, but the 15-minute retracement levels align closely with the key turning points of the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be designed to capitalize on the continuation of bullish momentum after confirmed breakouts above key resistance levels. For example, a long entry could be triggered at the close of a candle that breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (60.01) with strong volume confirmation. A stop-loss could be placed just below the most recent support level (59.92), with a take-profit target aligned with the next Fibonacci level (60.36) and beyond. This would allow for a risk/reward profile of approximately 1:0.44.