Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) Market Overview for 2025-10-08

• XLMJPY closed higher by 4.87% at 58.92 Yen after forming bullish reversal patterns from late-night lows.
• Volatility surged with a 59.14 Yen intraday high and 57.85 Yen low, indicating strong short-term indecision.
• Momentum turned positive as RSI crossed above 50 and MACD flipped to bullish divergence.
• Volume spiked to over 50k units at 00:00 ET and 05:30 ET, confirming key support and resistance tests.
• Price remains within the upper Bollinger Band, signaling a period of high volatility and overbought risk.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 58.43 Yen on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 58.92 Yen on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 59.14 Yen, and the low was 57.85 Yen. Total volume reached 431,120.0, and notional turnover amounted to 25,476,420.0 Yen.

Structure & Formations

XLMJPY showed a strong bullish reversal pattern after hitting a 24-hour low of 57.85 Yen during the early morning hours. A significant bullish engulfing pattern formed between 00:00 and 01:00 ET, where the price surged from 58.45 to 58.95 Yen on increasing volume. A key resistance level at 59.14 Yen was tested twice, with the first attempt failing in the late evening and the second breaking through in the early morning. A potential support area was identified near 58.80–58.85 Yen, where the price consolidated multiple times. The overall structure indicated a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment with strong volume confirmation.

Moving Averages and Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line around 01:00 ET, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period moving average remained above the 100-period line on the daily chart, reinforcing the trend. The MACD histogram showed a positive divergence with the price, suggesting growing bullish momentum. RSI crossed above 50 and approached the overbought threshold at 65–70, indicating that upward momentum could face resistance if not supported by volume.

Volatility and Turnover

Volatility was pronounced with a 1.29 Yen range between the session’s high and low. Bollinger Bands were wide, with the price staying near the upper band for much of the day, signaling high volatility. Notional turnover spiked at key price levels, particularly during the 00:00–01:00 ET and 05:30–06:00 ET periods, confirming price movements. Divergence was noted between price and turnover during the 09:00–10:00 ET rally, where turnover did not confirm the sharp upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings showed the price retesting the 61.8% retracement level at 58.80 Yen before rebounding. The daily chart Fibonacci levels identified key resistance at 59.14 Yen (161.8% extension of a prior bullish wave) and potential support at 58.60 Yen (61.8% retracement of the 24-hour range). These levels could serve as potential pivots for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a bullish breakout system using the 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart as an entry trigger, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. Given the recent bullish divergence in the MACD and RSI, this setup could be used to capture short-term momentum. A 1.5% trailing stop and a target of 59.14–59.25 Yen aligns with key Fibonacci and resistance levels. This hypothesis could be tested over the next 15–30 candles for confirmation.