Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) 24-Hour Market Overview

• Price drifted lower by 1.7% on a choppy 24-hour session with multiple failed attempts to break above 47.32.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning hours, only to contract midday as bearish momentum took hold.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 47.0–47.06 with volume confirmation, signaling a potential short-term reversal.
• RSI hit neutral territory near 50, with no clear overbought or oversold signals during the period.
• Turnover remained mixed, with a sharp rise during the 03:30–05:00 ET window amid a key breakdown.

The Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) pair opened at 46.86 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET and drifted lower to a close of 46.85 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. The 24-hour window saw a high of 47.45 and a low of 46.70, with a total volume of 62,489.7 and a notional turnover of ¥2,934,749.7. Price action was marked by several consolidation attempts and intermittent bearish breaks, particularly in the early morning and late afternoon hours.

Structure and price behavior reveal a 47.32–47.11 key resistance cluster that was tested and rejected multiple times, notably around 03:30–05:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 47.0–47.06 with strong volume confirmation, suggesting a potential near-term support area. The 46.85–46.94 zone appears to be consolidating as a possible short-term floor, with Fibonacci 38.2% retracement aligning at 46.93. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line, signaling a bearish crossover for intraday traders.

Momentum indicators show RSI hovering near 50, with no clear overbought or oversold readings, suggesting a neutral market. MACD lines showed bearish divergence in the early morning session before stabilizing in midday. Bollinger Bands reflected a period of volatility expansion in the 03:30–05:00 ET timeframe followed by a noticeable contraction, which often precedes a directional breakout. For now, the market appears range-bound, but the recent rejection of 47.11 and 47.32 could signal a short-term bearish consolidation.

Volume spiked during the 03:30–05:00 ET window, coinciding with the breakdown at 46.93–46.85 and confirming bearish pressure. Notional turnover also rose during this period, indicating active participation by larger players. Divergence between price and volume occurred around 08:15–09:45 ET, as price pushed to a high of 47.45 without a significant volume spike—suggesting potential exhaustion in the bullish wave. Turnover has remained relatively stable since midday, but the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern may prompt further selling pressure in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand potential market behavior under a systematic approach, a backtest using RSI (Relative Strength Index) as a signal generator could provide valuable insight. Given the recent consolidation, a strategy based on RSI thresholds—buying when RSI dips below 30 (oversold) and selling when it crosses above 70 (overbought)—could be evaluated. A 14-period RSI is recommended as a conventional and robust setting. Using the close price for signal generation and P/L calculation would align with standard practice. Additional risk controls, such as a 2% stop-loss or a 5% take-profit, could be applied to refine performance. A back-test from 2022-01-01 through 2025-11-02 would capture XLMJPY’s evolving behavior across different market regimes.