Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) 24-Hour Market Overview

• XLMJPY traded lower by ~7.0% over the last 24 hours, closing near intraday lows near 58.35.
• Volatility expanded as the pair dropped from 60.95 to 57.56, with volume surging in the final 3 hours.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the 15-minute chart near 60.21, confirming a downward shift.
• RSI reached oversold levels below 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating elevated volatility amid a sharp correction from key resistance at 60.26.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 60.00 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 60.95 before falling to 57.56, closing at 58.35 at 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour volume totaled 212,716 contracts, with a notional turnover of 12.81 million yen.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a distinct bearish trend, beginning with a strong bullish reversal in the early session and quickly reversing into a bearish engulfing pattern near 60.21. A doji formed at 59.65, signaling indecision and a potential reversal. Key resistance levels include 60.26 and 60.95, with support forming near 59.65 and a critical level at 58.35, where price found a floor after a sharp decline.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both below price action, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages are also bearish aligned, suggesting the downward trend is part of a larger bearish structure.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish divergence, reflecting weak momentum. RSI has fallen to oversold levels, dipping below 30 at 28.9, indicating potential for a rebound or consolidation. However, the RSI has failed to break back above 50, which raises concerns about a sustained bearish bias in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly in response to the sharp sell-off from 60.95 to 57.56. The current price action sits just above the lower band, suggesting the market is overextended to the downside. A retest of the 59.65 level could see a potential bounce if volatility contracts and the RSI gains momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the final 3 hours of the 24-hour period, particularly between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, coinciding with the sharp drop to 57.56. Turnover also increased in this window, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, volume declined during the rebound toward 58.63, indicating a lack of conviction in the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 60.95 to 57.56, the 38.2% level is at 59.16 and the 61.8% level is at 58.64. Price briefly found support at 58.63, aligning closely with the 61.8% level. On the daily chart, a major retracement level may provide support or resistance as the market tests the 59.65 to 60.26 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the 15-minute RSI falls below 30 and price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss above the 50-period moving average. A long position could be considered if RSI rises above 40 and price closes above 59.65, with a target at 60.21. Given the current bearish structure, this approach may perform best when applied to a short-bias strategy, using strict risk management due to the volatile and low-volume nature of XLMJPY.