Stellar/Yen Market Overview for 2025-11-01

• Price closed at 47.24 JPY, down from a 12:00 ET open of 47.43 JPY
• XLMJPY hit a 24-hour high of 47.39 JPY and a low of 46.44 JPY
• Notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:30 ET
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, while MACD turned negative
• Volatility increased during the early morning hours, with large price swings

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 47.43 JPY at 12:00 ET on October 31 and closed at 47.24 JPY at 12:00 ET on November 1. The pair reached a high of 47.39 JPY and a low of 46.44 JPY over the past 24 hours. Total trading volume amounted to 233,737.6 units, with a total turnover of approximately 10,625,281 JPY.

The 15-minute chart reveals several key patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:30 ET, where the candle opened at 46.48 and closed at 46.13, indicating strong bearish pressure. A second bearish engulfing candle followed at 19:30 ET, with a similar structure. These formations suggest bearish momentum despite the recovery in the latter half of the session. The price appears to find initial support near the 46.44 JPY level, a key level identified in the backtest strategy.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line during the late evening. The 50-period MA currently sits at approximately 47.03 JPY, and the 20-period MA is at 47.09 JPY, indicating a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 46.82 JPY, and the 200-period MA is at 47.12 JPY, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend.

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RSI(14) on the 15-minute chart hit 28.6 at 19:45 ET, indicating an oversold condition. However, the indicator has started to recover slightly in the morning hours, reaching 31.8 by 04:00 ET on November 1. MACD turned negative in the early evening, confirming the bearish momentum, with the histogram showing a widening gap. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, indicating a period of heightened volatility. The price currently sits just below the upper band, signaling a potential pullback or consolidation phase ahead.

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Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent swing from 46.44 to 47.39 JPY show a 61.8% retracement at 47.10 JPY, which may serve as a near-term resistance. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels have both been tested multiple times, with the 38.2% level (47.02 JPY) appearing to offer some temporary support.

Volume and turnover data highlight increased activity during the late evening and early morning hours, particularly between 19:30 ET and 02:00 ET on November 1, where large volume spikes coincided with sharp price declines. However, no clear divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting the bearish trend remains supported by trading activity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short trading strategy could be triggered when a bearish engulfing pattern appears alongside an RSI reading below 30. Given the recent formation at 17:30 ET, this would have been a valid entry point. The exit condition of 46.44 JPY aligns with a key support level observed in the 24-hour data. However, given the current price action, it is important to clarify whether the exit should be strictly based on reaching 46.44 or whether additional risk controls—such as a trailing stop or a time-based exit—are necessary if the price fails to reach the target. For a precise backtest, defining the exact RSI threshold and whether a time-based or trailing stop should be applied is essential to evaluate performance accurately.

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