Stellar (XLM): Is History Repeating, and Can a 100% Rally Be Next?

Stellar (XLM) has long been a subject of intrigue for investors and analysts, given its unique position in the blockchain ecosystem and its historical price behavior. As of late 2025, the cryptocurrency is approaching a critical juncture, with technical patterns and on-chain metrics suggesting a potential breakout. This article examines whether history is repeating for XLM and evaluates the likelihood of a 100% rally, supported by both technical analysis and on-chain demand validation.

Technical Pattern Replication: A Cup and Handle on the Brink

Stellar's price action since 2021 has formed a textbook "cup and handle" pattern, a bullish continuation structure often associated with significant price surges. The pattern's completion is nearing in late 2025, with the price currently tightening near a long-term descending resistance line formed over years of trading. Analysts highlight that a decisive break above this resistance-currently around $0.31-could trigger a new expansion phase, potentially propelling XLM toward $0.52 or higher according to analysis.

Historical parallels further strengthen this case. The current price structure mirrors cycles from 2015–2018, characterized by prolonged accumulation phases followed by sharp distribution peaks. If the pattern holds, XLM could enter a "Distribution Area" above $2.00, aligning with prior cycle highs. Notably, the token has already demonstrated resilience, with a 3.09% 24-hour gain and a market capitalization of $9.94 billion, signaling renewed speculative interest.

On-Chain Demand: Accumulation and Real-World Utility

Technical patterns alone cannot confirm a rally without corresponding on-chain validation. In Q3–Q4 2025, Stellar's network has shown robust demand metrics. Active addresses increased by 15% in Q4, while smart contract invocations surged 700% year-over-year, reflecting growing institutional and developer adoption. Real-world asset (RWA) transactions on the network reached $5.4 billion in Q4, underscoring Stellar's expanding utility in cross-border payments and tokenization according to on-chain data.

Whale activity also paints a bullish picture. Large holders are accumulating XLM in anticipation of network expansions, with on-chain data indicating strategic positioning. This aligns with Stellar's partnerships, such as Taurus launching custody platforms and Wirex integrating on-chain Visa payments for 7 million users according to latest updates. Additionally, SWIFT's exploratory trials for cross-border transfers on Stellar highlight its role in bridging traditional and blockchain finance as reported in latest updates.

The Case for a 100% Rally

Combining technical and on-chain signals, the case for a 100% rally hinges on two factors: pattern completion and demand sustainability. The cup and handle pattern historically predicts a target of $0.52 if the breakout succeeds according to analysis, while historical cycles suggest a longer-term potential toward $2.00 as reported in market analysis. On-chain metrics, including rising active addresses, RWA volume, and whale accumulation, validate that buying pressure is not merely speculative but tied to real-world utility according to on-chain data.

However, risks remain. The Money Flow Index (MFI) still resides in a bearish 30–50 range, indicating cautious accumulation according to technical indicators. Additionally, while exchange inflows and developer growth are strong, they must continue to accelerate to sustain a prolonged rally. Regulatory clarity and institutional partnerships will also play pivotal roles in determining XLM's trajectory as reported in industry analysis.

Conclusion

Stellar (XLM) stands at a crossroads, with technical patterns and on-chain demand metrics suggesting a high probability of a breakout. The replication of historical price structures, coupled with surging real-world adoption and whale activity, creates a compelling case for a 100% rally. While risks persist, the alignment of technical, fundamental, and on-chain signals positions XLM as a key player in the next phase of blockchain-driven finance. Investors should closely monitor the $0.31–$0.35 support zone and the broader market's reaction to Stellar's institutional integrations.