Stellar (XLM) and the Emerging On-Chain Patterns Suggesting a Major Price Breakout

In the ever-evolving landscape of blockchain and cross-border finance, Stellar (XLM) has emerged as a formidable contender, blending technical innovation with real-world utility. As of October 2025, the network's on-chain metrics and strategic partnerships are painting a compelling picture of long-term growth, while technical indicators hint at a potential price breakout. This analysis synthesizes both fundamental and technical perspectives to evaluate XLM's trajectory.

Fundamental Analysis: Cross-Border Payments and Ecosystem Growth

Stellar's core value proposition lies in its ability to facilitate fast, low-cost cross-border transactions. According to a CoinCryptorank guide, the platform processes transactions at fees as low as $0.00012, a stark contrast to traditional remittance costs that often exceed 6-7%. This efficiency is underpinned by the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP), which enables 5-10 second settlement times while maintaining energy efficiency and decentralization, as the guide highlights.

The network's partnerships with global giants like MoneyGram, IBM, and PayPal have further solidified its role in the financial infrastructure. For instance, the integration of stablecoins such as USDC on Stellar has enabled seamless bridging between traditional finance and crypto ecosystems, driving adoption in remittance corridors and institutional use cases, the CoinCryptorank guide also notes. Additionally, the launch of Soroban, Stellar's smart contract platform, has expanded the network's capabilities into DeFi, attracting developers and liquidity providers, a point emphasized in the same guide.

On-chain data also reveals robust growth in Total Value Locked (TVL). As of July 2025, TVL on Stellar's DeFi protocols reached $97.7 million, a fourfold increase since December 2024, despite a 50% drop in XLM's price, as reported by an FXLeaders report. This surge in TVL, coupled with a daily transaction volume of 265 million in October 2025, underscores the network's growing utility, according to a BlockNews analysis.

Technical Analysis: Accumulation and Support-Level Dynamics

While fundamentals are bullish, technical indicators suggest XLM is poised for a breakout. In October 2025, the asset experienced a sharp sell-off, breaking the $0.34 support level and triggering liquidations. However, this volatility coincided with significant accumulation activity. Binance wallet data revealed over 240 million XLM withdrawn from the exchange in the preceding two months, signaling institutional and retail investors locking in the asset, according to a BeInCrypto report.

A critical support level at $0.33 was tested in late October, with trading volume surging to 63.1 million XLM-nearly double the daily average-indicating intense selling pressure, as a CryptoFront News report showed. Yet, institutional buyers stepped in to accumulate between $0.32–$0.33, stabilizing the price and pushing it back to $0.3383 within 24 hours, the CryptoFront News report added. Analysts using Elliott Wave frameworks have projected a long-term target of $1.44 by year-end if accumulation persists, according to that analysis.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving average crossovers further reinforce this narrative. Despite a bearish funding rate for XLM futures contracts (negative since October 11), the asset's price rebound suggests exhaustion of immediate selling pressure, as noted in the BeInCrypto report. With XLM trading at $0.3383 as of October 24, a 3.34% 24-hour gain, the technical setup appears favorable for a breakout above key resistance levels.

On-Chain Metrics: Network Stability and Future Potential

The Stellar Protocol 24 upgrade, released in October 2025, addressed critical bugs and improved network synchronization, enhancing long-term reliability, as a Coinotag report noted. While this update did not directly impact transaction volume, it signaled a commitment to stability-a crucial factor for institutional adoption.

Moreover, the network's TVL growth and cross-border transaction volume (over 265 million daily in October 2025) highlight its scalability, as the BlockNews analysis described. With a market cap of $11.6 billion and a daily trading volume of $329 million, XLM is increasingly capturing a share of the $1.8 trillion cross-border payments market, according to a Gate article.

Conclusion: A Convergence of Fundamentals and Technicals

Stellar's dual strengths-its role in cross-border finance and its expanding DeFi ecosystem-position it as a unique asset in the crypto space. Fundamentally, the network's partnerships and TVL growth demonstrate real-world adoption, while technically, accumulation patterns and support-level tests suggest a potential breakout. For investors, the convergence of these factors presents a compelling case for XLM, particularly as the asset navigates a critical inflection point in late 2025.