Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price action broke below key support and tested a multi-day low.
• Volume spiked during the initial decline but weakened during the rebound.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, while MACD showed divergence.

Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.2729 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between $0.2601 and $0.2745, closing at $0.2738 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 93,189,580.0 XLM, with a notional turnover of $25,018,692.47.

The price action over the last 24 hours displayed a bearish bias, with a strong pullback occurring after a brief rebound in the early hours of 2025-11-05. A key support level at $0.2650 was breached, and the asset found temporary support near $0.2532 before a rebound began. A strong bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 20:30 ET–1 (2025-11-04 203000) confirmed the breakdown. The formation of several bearish engulfing patterns during the decline indicated strong short-term selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action revealed multiple bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing formation around 20:30 ET–1 and a morning pullback forming a possible bullish reversal pattern at $0.2601. The key support zone now resides between $0.2650 and $0.2532, while resistance is forming near $0.2720–$0.2740. A successful retest of the $0.2601 level may confirm a short-term bottom, but a break below $0.2532 could trigger further volatility to the downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with the price currently trading below both. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) show a mixed picture, with the 50-period line hovering slightly above the 100-period line and the 200-period line acting as a long-term reference. This divergence suggests the pair is in a short-term bearish phase but remains within a larger consolidation pattern.

MACD & RSI

The RSI indicator hit oversold territory near 25 during the 2025-11-04 20:30 ET–1 pullback, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram contracting despite a price rebound. This suggests that while the asset is overextended on the downside, momentum remains on the bearish side, and a bearish continuation may be more probable than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the initial bearish move, with the asset touching the lower band at $0.2532. Since then, volatility has slightly contracted as the price moved back toward the middle band. A move back to the upper Bollinger band would require a rally of more than 5%. The current position near the middle band suggests a potential consolidation phase is forming after a sharp decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial breakdown at $0.2601 and again during the deep pullback to $0.2532, with the largest single 15-minute volume of 7,196,333 XLM recorded at 20:30 ET–1. Turnover also rose during the decline, but it weakened during the subsequent rebound. This indicates that the initial move was backed by strong selling pressure, while the rebound lacked comparable buying conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute move from $0.2729 to $0.2601, the 38.2% retrace level is around $0.2674 and the 61.8% retrace level is near $0.2636. The price has already tested the 38.2% level and may encounter resistance at $0.2674 in the coming hours. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retrace of the broader $0.2729–$0.2532 move is at $0.2646 and could serve as a short-term pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves identifying Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns on the 15-minute XLMUSDT chart and evaluating the performance of a 24-hour holding period. While initial attempts to gather this data encountered errors, confirming the exact exchange and symbol format (e.g., BINANCE: XLMUSDT) will enable retrieval of the necessary pattern data. Once validated, a back-test from 2022-01-01 to present could assess the effectiveness of this setup in varying market conditions, especially following bearish breakdowns like those observed in the recent data.