Stellar/Tether (XLM/USDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-03

• XLM/USDT traded in a tight range before breaking higher amid increased volume.
• A bullish breakout above 0.4055 was followed by a consolidation phase, indicating mixed sentiment.
• RSI remained in overbought territory for part of the session, suggesting caution ahead of a potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded during key breakouts, with volume peaking around 0.4115–0.4123 before retreating.
• A key support level formed near 0.3990–0.4005, holding well during multiple test attempts.

The Stellar/Tether (XLM/USDT) pair opened at $0.3979 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.4123 during the session, and closed at $0.4011 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a low of $0.3990. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 121.5 million XLM, and notional turnover came to $49.5 million, showing increased activity during key breakout attempts.

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support zone forming around $0.3990–$0.4005, with multiple bullish bounces confirming its importance. Resistance emerged at $0.4055–$0.4115, where price tested the upper bounds during a late-night rally. A bullish engulfing pattern was seen around $0.4072–$0.4078, followed by a long upper shadow indicating distribution pressure. A doji near $0.4130 also signaled indecision among market participants.

The 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart moved into bullish territory, but the 50-period EMA remained slightly bearish, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The daily 50/100/200 EMAs remain aligned in a bullish configuration, suggesting that long-term buyers are still in control despite the intraday consolidation.

The RSI indicator saw a sharp rise into overbought territory during the late-night breakout, peaking at 72 before retreating to neutral ground, suggesting potential exhaustion among buyers. The MACD crossed into positive territory during the rally but showed a weakening momentum as volume failed to confirm a new high. Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout, with price eventually retreating toward the midline, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The pair appears to be testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent swing high, which currently aligns with $0.4025–$0.4030.

A notable divergence emerged in the 15-minute RSI vs. price action around 0.4115–0.4134, where price made a new high but RSI did not. This could indicate weakening bullish momentum and potential for a near-term pullback. Volume spiked during the breakout attempt but has since diminished, reinforcing the idea of reduced conviction among buyers.