Stellantis Soared 8.97%—What’s Fueling This Sudden Surge?

Summary
• Stellantis (STLA) surged 8.97% intraday, trading at $9.535 as of 19:29 ET.
• Intraday range spans $8.99 to $9.5699, with turnover hitting 22.8 million shares.
• RSI at 27.23 signals oversold territory, while the 200-day MA at $11.14 looms as a critical resistance.
• The stock’s sharp rebound defies its long-term bearish trend, sparking questions about catalysts and sustainability.

Technical Rebound Amid Oversold Conditions
Stellantis’ 8.97% intraday surge reflects a technical rebound from oversold levels. The RSI at 27.23 and MACD histogram at -0.0975 indicate a short-term oversold bounce. Price action shows a break above the 30-day MA ($9.37) and a test of the Bollinger Bands’ upper boundary ($10.30). However, the 200-day MA at $11.14 remains a formidable hurdle, with the stock still 15% below its 52-week high of $16.29. This move appears driven by algorithmic buying and short-covering rather than fundamental news.

Automotive Sector Volatility: Tesla’s 5.54% Rally Adds Fuel
The broader automotive sector saw mixed momentum, with Tesla (TSLA) surging 5.54% on speculation of production efficiency gains. While Stellantis’ rally isn’t directly tied to sector news, the sector’s risk-on sentiment likely amplified STLA’s rebound. Tesla’s outperformance highlights divergent investor sentiment between EV innovators and legacy automakers like Stellantis, which faces margin pressures in its traditional ICE business.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on STLA’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $11.14 (above current price)
• RSI: 27.23 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.176 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.0785
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $10.30, Middle $9.516, Lower $8.73
• Key Levels: 200D MA ($11.14), 52W Low ($8.393)

Top Options Picks:
1. STLA20250919P9.5 (Put)
• Strike: $9.50, Expiry: 2025-09-19
• IV: 38.99% (moderate), LVR: 45.50%, Delta: -0.455, Theta: -0.030, Gamma: 0.676, Turnover: 1,067
• IV: Implied volatility suggests moderate risk/reward
• LVR: High leverage for short-term moves
• Delta: Sensitive to price swings
• Gamma: High sensitivity to price changes
• Theta: Aggressive time decay (0.030) suits near-term plays
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($9.99), payoff = max(0, $9.99 - $9.50) = $0.49 per share. Ideal for short-term volatility.
2. STLA20250919C10 (Call)
• Strike: $10.00, Expiry: 2025-09-19
• IV: 43.81% (moderate), LVR: 95.55%, Delta: 0.260, Theta: -0.00096, Gamma: 0.493, Turnover: 5,462
• IV: Balanced volatility for directional bets
• LVR: Extreme leverage for aggressive bulls
• Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price
• Gamma: Strong response to price acceleration
• Theta: Minimal time decay (0.00096) suits holding into expiry
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($9.99), payoff = max(0, $9.99 - $10.00) = $0.00. Not ideal for this scenario but retains value if STLA breaks $10.00.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider STLA20250919C10 into a break above $10.00. Short-term traders should monitor STLA20250919P9.5 for volatility plays.

Backtest Stellantis Stock Performance
The event-study back-test has been completed.Key assumptions that were auto-set for you 1. Event definition – a “9 % intraday surge” was interpreted as any session in which STLA’s closing price finished ≥ 9 % above the previous day’s close (this is the most widely-used proxy when true intraday tick data are not required). 2. Test window – full history from 2022-01-01 through 2025-09-11 (latest market close). 3. Price series – daily official close. Summary insights • Only 4 qualifying events were found in the sample period, indicating that a 9 %+ day is rare for STLA. • The average next-day excess return was mildly positive (+0.68 %), but statistical significance was not achieved at any horizon out to 30 trading days. • Cumulative performance begins to fade after roughly two weeks, with the 30-day post-event return showing a slight under-performance vs the benchmark. A visual, drill-down report is available below; feel free to explore each horizon or overlay additional metrics as needed.Feel free to dive into the interactive chart, adjust the holding window, or let me know if you’d like to test different thresholds or add risk-control layers.

Break $10.00 to Validate This Rally—Act Now
Stellantis’ 8.97% surge is a technical rebound from oversold levels, but sustainability hinges on breaking above $10.00 and the 200-day MA at $11.14. The 52-week low at $8.393 remains a critical support. Tesla’s 5.54% rally underscores sector volatility, but Stellantis’ path is more dependent on its ability to reverse its long-term bearish trend. Investors should watch for a close above $10.00 to confirm momentum or a retest of $8.73 as a bearish signal. For now, STLA20250919C10 offers high leverage if the $10.00 level holds.