Steel Dynamics Projects Higher Q1 Earnings on Demand and Pricing Gains

Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD has released first-quarter 2026 earnings guidance of $2.73 to $2.77 per share. This is higher than $1.82 reported in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $1.44 in the prior-year period.

The improvement is expected to have been driven by stronger steel operations as shipments increased and metal margins expanded because selling prices rose faster than scrap costs. Demand remains solid across construction, energy, automotive and industrial sectors. STLD sees meaningfully higher profitability in steel operations in the first quarter compared with the prior quarter.

Earnings from metals recycling are expected to increase sequentially due to higher ferrous and nonferrous prices. Per the view, shipments were slightly lower earlier in the quarter due to winter weather, but have normalized since. Steel fabrication earnings are expected to remain stable. Higher shipment volumes are expected to offset margin pressure from increased raw material costs.

The order backlog has grown more than 35% from last year and extends into the third quarter of 2026. Commercial construction, data center and warehouse buildouts, manufacturing and healthcare are supporting demand, STLD noted.

The company continues with commissioning and start-up of its Columbus aluminum mill. It has started producing finished products for the beverage can and industrial sectors and has received qualifications for automotive applications.

Steel Dynamics has repurchased about $66 million of shares in the quarter. It slowed buybacks due to higher working capital needs linked to profit-sharing payments and the aluminum ramp-up. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on April 20, 2026.

Shares of STLD are up 34.3% over the past year compared with the industry’s rise of 28.9%.

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STLD’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

STLD currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space include Compass Minerals International, Inc. CMP, DuPont de Nemours, Inc. DD and Centerra Gold, Inc. CGAU. CMP, DD and CGAU sport a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMP’s current-year earnings is pegged at 89 cents per share, indicating a 285.42% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average earnings surprise being 35%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DD’s current fiscal-year earnings stands at $2.28 per share, implying a 36% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 6.5%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CGAU’s current fiscal-year earnings is pegged at $1.73 per share, indicating a 56% year-over-year rise. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 29.4%.

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Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD): Free Stock Analysis Report

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