Steel Dynamics Jumps 6.15% On Bullish Technical Breakout

Steel Dynamics (STLD) demonstrated robust bullish momentum in the most recent session, surging 6.15% to close at $139.67 on above-average volume of 2.34 million shares. This marks a two-day gain of 6.90%, with the price testing the critical $141.90 resistance level observed during the June 2025 peak.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action forms a bullish continuation pattern. The 9/16 candle exhibits a long green body (open: $135.43, close: $139.67), decisively breaking above the $132–$135 consolidation zone that contained prices since early August. The recovery from the 9/12 hammer candle low at $130.58 suggests strong support near $130. Immediate resistance resides at the 2025 high of $142.42 (6/2), while the 9/15 low of $129.41 serves as key support.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average structure confirms a bullish trend. The 50-day MA ($132.10) recently crossed above the 100-day MA ($128.75), and both remain above the ascending 200-day MA ($121.40). The current price trades well above all three averages, with the steep slope of the 50-day MA indicating accelerating short-term momentum. No bearish crossovers are imminent, suggesting trend continuity.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows strengthening bullish momentum, with the histogram expanding positively after a bullish crossover near the zero line. KDJ readings (K: 85, D: 78, J: 92) signal overbought conditions, though divergence is absent. While elevated KDJ warrants caution, MACD’s confirmation suggests upside potential may persist before consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Price broke above the upper Bollinger Band ($137.80) on 9/16 amid expanding bandwidth, indicating strong directional momentum. The 20-day average ($132.40) slopes upward, while the prior contraction in bands during late August signaled the impending volatility spike. Sustained closes above the upper band remain rare but reflect intense buying pressure.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends validate the breakout. The 9/16 surge occurred on 116% higher volume than the 50-day average, with accumulation days outnumbering distribution 3:1 over the past week. Notably, the 8/22 rally (+5.50%) saw even higher volume (2.46 million shares), establishing $126–$133 as a high-conviction support zone.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (74) approaches overbought territory but lacks bearish divergence. While this warns of potential near-term exhaustion, the indicator’s upward trajectory aligns with the trend. Historically, STLD has maintained RSI readings >70 during strong uptrends (e.g., May–June 2025), suggesting overbought conditions may persist before mean reversion.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between the 2024 low ($110.90, 9/17) and 2025 high ($142.42, 6/2), key retracement supports cluster at $133.70 (23.6%) and $128.50 (38.2%). Recent pullbacks to $125.32 (8/11) and $129.41 (9/15) respected the 38.2% zone, reinforcing its significance. The 9/16 close above the 23.6% level suggests momentum may challenge the all-time high.
Confluence & Divergence
Bullish confluence appears at $133–$135, where the 23.6% Fibonacci level aligns with the 50-day MA and prior consolidation resistance (now support). Bearish divergence is absent among oscillators, though KDJ’s overbought reading slightly conflicts with RSI’s neutral warning. Volume confirmation and moving average alignment suggest near-term upside bias toward the $142.42 resistance, contingent on sustained closes above $135. A reversal below $129.41 would invalidate the breakout structure.