State of Freight Live: A Bullish Post-Election Trucking Market Assessment

The recent presidential election has brought a wave of optimism to the trucking industry, with experts predicting a bullish post-election market. In a live webinar, Craig Fuller and Zach Strickland of SONAR discussed the current state of the freight market and shared their insights on the upcoming trends. Their assessment paints a positive picture for the trucking industry, with signs of recovery and growth on the horizon.

One of the most notable developments is the end of the Great Freight Recession, which lasted for approximately two and a half years. Fuller and Strickland declared that the recession is over, and the market is now in a recovery phase. This positive outlook is supported by various indicators, such as the Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) and freight rates.

The OTRI, which measures the percentage of contract freight rejected by carriers, has been on the rise. It reached a low point of about 2.5% in May 2023 and has since climbed to nearly 6%. This increase suggests that carriers are struggling to cover their customer accounts due to increased demand, indicating a tightening capacity market.



Freight rates, both contract and spot, have also shown signs of recovery. The National Truckload Index, which measures rates per mile for linehaul only, has shown a gradual pull higher over the last weeks. Additionally, the relationship between contract and spot prices has started to narrow, with all rates moving in the same direction. This convergence, coupled with a breakout rate above 6% for OTRI, has led industry experts to conclude that the freight recession is over.

Another factor driving the bullish post-election trucking market assessment is the threat of new tariffs. The threat of tariffs could create an enormous amount of 'pull forward' demand for imported products, as seen in 2017 and 2018. This increased demand for imports would boost trucking volumes and potentially drive up prices.

The post-election trucking market assessment by SONAR highlights a bullish outlook, with the Great Freight Recession declared over. The combination of increased demand, tightening capacity, and potential stimulus from new tariff regimes bodes well for the trucking industry. As the market continues to recover, investors can expect steady growth and consistent performance from trucking companies.

In conclusion, the bullish post-election trucking market assessment by SONAR paints a positive picture for the industry. The end of the Great Freight Recession, rising freight rates, and the threat of new tariffs all contribute to a recovering market. As the industry continues to grow, investors can expect steady performance and consistent growth from trucking companies.