Stargate Finance/Tether Market Overview (STGUSDT)

Summary
• STGUSDT fell from 0.1283 to 0.1200 as bearish momentum dominated the 24-hour period.
• A bearish breakout below the 0.1250 psychological level intensified downward pressure.
• High volume during the decline reinforced bearish conviction and weak buying interest.
• A key support at 0.1200 held temporarily, but no reversal confirmation emerged.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions reversed sharply, favoring a continuation lower.

Stargate Finance/Tether (STGUSDT) opened at 0.1262 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.1305 before closing at 0.1220 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 0.1200. Total volume traded was 10,703,276.6 units, with a notional turnover of $1,313,831.20.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish breakdown from a key horizontal resistance at 0.1283 and a 50-period moving average. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the candle ending at 0.1240 (22:30 ET), confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji at 0.1216 (09:45 ET) hinted at indecision, but failed to reverse the trend. The 0.1200 support level appears critical; a break below could accelerate momentum toward 0.1180.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages (15-min chart) crossed below key swing lows, reinforcing a bearish bias. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction earlier in the session but expanded during the sell-off, indicating rising volatility. Price remains below the lower band near 0.1200, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend if the level holds.

MACD and RSI

MACD turned sharply lower, with the histogram shrinking and the line crossing below zero, signaling strengthening bearish momentum. RSI fell from overbought territory (above 60) to below 30, reaching oversold conditions during the late-ET sell-off. This suggests short-term exhaustion but not a reversal. Traders may need further confirmation before taking long positions.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the early-ET sell-off, with large-volume candles below 0.1260 indicating capitulation. Notional turnover increased in line with the price drop, showing conviction in bearish bets. The lack of follow-through buying at key levels suggests weak demand, increasing the likelihood of further downside in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the key high of 0.1305 to the low of 0.1200 show 0.1243 (38.2%) and 0.1229 (61.8%) as potential retest points. A close below 0.1200 would bring the 78.6% retracement at 0.1179 into focus. These levels may act as temporary pivots for short-term traders, though bearish bias remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed RSI-based backtest aims to identify oversold entry points (RSI < 30) on a 14-day basis, holding for three days. Given today’s RSI nearing 30, a signal may be triggered, but confirmation is needed for a long position. The strategy requires clean historical RSI data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-04 for accurate backtesting. Data retrieval is currently stalled due to a symbol format issue with STGUSDT. Correcting the symbol format or providing an alternative data source will allow the backtest to proceed, enabling evaluation of the strategy’s profitability and risk-adjusted returns.