Stardust Power Explodes 77%—What’s Fueling This Lithium-Fired Surge?

• Stardust Power (SDST) soars 77% to $0.4465, hitting a day high of $0.622 amid lithium refinery optimism
• Pre-market rally surged 110%, fueled by strategic partnerships and $4.3M funding for North American lithium projects
• Sector leader ALB (Albemarle) climbs 0.83%, but SDST’s volatility eclipses broader metals gains
• Trading volume surges 32x average, signaling retail/institutional buying frenzy

Today’s meteoric rise caps a week of speculative fervor, with SDST clawing back 12-month losses on lithium-driven momentum. The stock’s 147M shares traded reflect a market hungry for EV battery plays, even amid year-to-date losses exceeding 90%.

Lithium Ambitions and Federal Backing Ignite the Spark
Stardust Power’s surge stems from three catalysts: 1) Its $400M DoD-backed partnership with MP Materials signals federal support for domestic lithium supply chains, 2) A MOU with Ohio University advances Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) tech critical for battery-grade production, and 3) A $4.3M underwritten offering funds its bid to build North America’s largest lithium refinery by 2027. The company’s X posts amplifying MP Materials’ success created FOMO among investors chasing EV infrastructure plays. Analysts cite the stock’s 832.5% upside target as validation of this lithium-driven repositioning.

Metals & Mining Sector Mixed Amid Geopolitical Crosscurrents
While SDST soars, broader metals face headwinds: Congo’s cobalt export ban, Niger’s uranium mine seizures, and U.S.-China magnet disputes highlight sector fragility. ALB’s muted 0.83% rise underscores the contrast—Stardust’s hypergrowth narrative dwarfs established players’ regulatory risks. The disconnect reflects retail focus on ‘reshoring’ winners versus institutional caution toward geopolitical minefields.

Bullish Technicals Suggest Hold Through Resistance—No Options to Exploit
• RSI: 86.84 (Overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: $0.46 (Upper), $0.25 (Middle), $0.03 (Lower)
• MACD: +0.015 (Bullish Histogram)
• Key Levels: $0.40 (30D support), $0.63 (200D resistance)

Bulls target $0.63 resistance while bears eye $0.40 breakdown. The stock’s 32x volume surge suggests momentum could extend, but RSI overextension risks a pullback. With no liquid options available, traders should focus on the underlying: GREK (VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF) tracks lithium’s macro story. Aggressive buyers should set $0.60 targets with $0.45 stop-losses.

Options alert: No tradable contracts identified in current chain—stick to stock/ETF exposure.

Backtest Stardust Power Stock Performance
The performance of the SDST ETF after an intraday increase of 77% was generally favorable, although the returns diminished over longer time frames. The 3-day win rate was 32.53%, the 10-day win rate was 38.55%, and the 30-day win rate was 44.58%. This indicates a higher probability of positive returns in the short term following the surge. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.61%, which suggests that while there was some positive momentum, it did not lead to significantly higher returns in the medium to long term.

Hold the Line at $0.40 or Risk Lithium’s Next Chapter
Stardust’s rally faces two critical tests: sustaining above $0.40 support and breaking $0.63 resistance. While lithium’s strategic importance bolsters fundamentals, overbought RSI warns of a correction. Investors must weigh federal supply chain tailwinds against 97% annual losses. Watch for MP Materials’ DoD deal execution and Ohio University’s DLE breakthroughs—these milestones could validate the $2.35 price target. For now, ALB’s 0.83% climb hints at sector rotation risks—stay tactical until refinery construction begins.

Action: Hold through $0.40, but prepare for volatility if lithium hype sputters.