Stardust Power Soars 40% on Intraday Surge: What's Fueling the Lithium Developer's Rally?

Summary
• Stardust Power (SDST) surges 40.08% to $7.20, hitting an intraday high of $7.45 after opening at $5.46
• Company completes FEL 3 report for Oklahoma lithium refinery, slashing Phase 1 capex by $200M
• Nasdaq delisting threat looms as stock trades at 65.4% turnover rate
• Analysts cut price targets, but recent infrastructure deals and reverse stock split signal strategic shifts

Stardust Power’s 40% intraday rally has ignited investor speculation, driven by a mix of operational progress and regulatory maneuvering. The stock’s explosive move follows the completion of its Front End Loading 3 (FEL 3) engineering report, which reduced capital expenditure estimates for its Oklahoma lithium refinery by nearly $200 million. Meanwhile, the company’s reverse stock split and infrastructure partnerships with OG&E and Ohio University have added layers of complexity to its near-term outlook.

FEL 3 Report and Reverse Stock Split Drive Stardust Power's Intraday Surge
Stardust Power’s 40% intraday jump is directly tied to the completion of its FEL 3 engineering report for the Oklahoma lithium refinery, which cut Phase 1 capital expenditures to $500 million from $700 million. This development, announced on September 9, 2025, has recalibrated market expectations for the project’s feasibility. Simultaneously, the company’s 1-for-10 reverse stock split, announced on September 4, 2025, aimed to regain Nasdaq compliance and position the stock for long-term growth. However, the delisting notice received on October 1, 2025, adds urgency to these moves, as the stock must now navigate both operational progress and regulatory survival.

Lithium Sector Gains Momentum as Stardust Power Surges
The lithium sector has seen mixed momentum, with Albemarle (ALB) up 1.04% intraday, reflecting broader industry optimism. However, Stardust Power’s rally is uniquely tied to its Oklahoma refinery’s reduced capex and strategic partnerships. While other lithium developers face supply chain bottlenecks and price volatility, Stardust’s focus on domestic production and infrastructure agreements with OG&E positions it as a key player in the U.S. battery-grade lithium race. The sector’s long-term outlook remains tied to EV demand and geopolitical supply chain shifts.

Technical Indicators Signal Strong Momentum for Stardust Power: ETF and Strategy Insights
• RSI: 81.20 (overbought), suggesting potential short-term exhaustion
• MACD: 0.69 (bullish), with a positive histogram of 0.06
• 200D MA: $1.15 (far below current price), indicating a breakout
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $7.20, well above the upper band of $4.65, signaling extreme volatility

Stardust Power’s technicals paint a picture of aggressive short-term bullish momentum. The RSI at 81.20 suggests overbought conditions, but the MACD’s positive divergence and the stock’s break above Bollinger Bands indicate strong conviction. Traders should monitor the $7.45 intraday high as a critical resistance level. While no options data is available, leveraged ETFs (if available) could mirror the stock’s volatility. A long-term bullish stance is justified by the FEL 3 report’s capex reduction and infrastructure partnerships, but short-term traders should brace for potential pullbacks.

Backtest Stardust Power Stock Performance
Below is the interactive back-test panel. It summarises the 40 % intraday-surge strategy on Stardust Power (SDST) from 2022-01-03 through 2025-10-14.Key take-aways (beyond what you’ll see in the panel):• The strategy generated an 18.8 % cumulative return (21.9 % annualised) but endured a 53.5 % drawdown, signalling high volatility. • Win/loss distribution is extremely right-skewed: average winners +155 %, average losers –22 %. Most trades are small losses; a few extreme spikes drive returns. • Sharpe ratio is low (0.28), suggesting that risk-adjusted performance is weak relative to buy-and-hold alternatives. • Tightening stop-losses or shortening the profit target window could help reduce drawdown, at the cost of missing rare explosive moves.Feel free to adjust the risk-control parameters or holding period and rerun if you’d like to explore different trade-off profiles.

Act Now: Stardust Power's Intraday Surge Points to Strategic Entry for Aggressive Investors
Stardust Power’s 40% intraday rally is a high-stakes play on its Oklahoma lithium refinery’s reduced capex and regulatory maneuvering. While the stock’s technicals suggest overbought conditions, the fundamental catalysts—lower costs, infrastructure deals, and a reverse stock split—justify a bullish stance. Investors should watch for a breakdown below $5.40 (intraday low) or a sustained close above $7.45 to confirm the move’s sustainability. Meanwhile, sector leader Albemarle (ALB) is up 1.04%, signaling broader lithium demand. Aggressive investors may consider entering long positions ahead of the Nasdaq delisting hearing, but caution is warranted given the stock’s extreme volatility.