Starbucks Shares Drop 282% with 890M in Volume Ranking 95th as Institutional Caution and Trump Tariff Risks Intensify

On September 3, 2025, Starbucks (SBUX) fell 2.82% with a trading volume of $0.89 billion, ranking 95th in market activity. The stock faces technical headwinds amid divergent investor sentiment and external risks. Analysts highlight mixed signals: while fundamentals remain robust, bearish indicators such as WR Oversold and the dividend payable date suggest near-term downside potential.

Institutional investors exhibit caution, with block inflows at 47.54%, contrasting retail optimism at 50.08% small inflows. This divergence reflects a tug-of-war between profit-taking by larger players and retail buying resilience. However, the technical score of 1.89 underscores a weak market structure, with key support levels like $89.59 and $85.43 critical for near-term direction.

External pressures loom large. The Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on suppliers in Canada, Mexico, and China could elevate costs, squeezing margins. Conversely, hospitality sector expansion—such as InterContinental Hotels’ global growth—may indirectly benefit Starbucks’ international presence. Yet, the stock’s higher valuation (42.98 P/E) makes it more vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds like inflation and rising interest rates.

Options activity intensifies bearish positioning, with aggressive put buying around $86–$88 strike prices ahead of the September 12 expiration. The RSI at 39.46 and MACD at -1.07 confirm weakening momentum. Traders are closely monitoring whether the breakdown below $85.43 will confirm a sustained downtrend. Analysts advise caution, recommending patience for a pullback before initiating new positions.

Backtest results indicate that breaking below $85.43 would validate the bearish case. Aggressive traders may prioritize the SBUX20250912P86 put option for high leverage, while a safer approach targets the SBUX20250912P87 contract. The sector’s mixed performance, with McDonald’s (-0.44%) underperforming SBUX, highlights broader restaurant industry fragility but also underscores Starbucks’ vulnerability to margin pressures.