Starbucks cae un 2,8% frente a las manifestaciones laborales y los cambios estratégicos: ¿Qué viene?

Summary
• Starbucks (SBUX) trades at $83.75, down 2.8% from its previous close of $86.17
• Intraday range spans $83.495 to $86.14, reflecting heightened volatility
• Institutional selling and labor strikes at Seattle headquarters intensify bearish sentiment
• New CTO Anand Varadarajan’s tech overhaul faces skepticism amid declining institutional ownership

Starbucks’ stock has plunged to a 52-week low of $75.5, with intraday losses of 3.05% since the open. The selloff coincides with escalating labor disputes, a 3.8% stake reduction by Riverbridge Partners, and mixed technical signals. As the stock tests critical support levels, investors must weigh short-term bearish momentum against long-term strategic pivots.

Labor Unrest and Institutional Selling Fuel Sharp Selloff
Starbucks’ 2.8% decline is driven by a perfect storm of labor unrest and institutional caution. Starbucks Workers United has escalated strikes to 65 stores, with government scrutiny intensifying. Simultaneously, Riverbridge Partners’ 3.8% stake reduction signals waning confidence in the stock’s near-term trajectory. Technically, the price has broken below key moving averages (200D: $87.81) and critical support at $85.20, amplifying bearish sentiment. The appointment of Anand Varadarajan as CTO, while aimed at tech-driven efficiency, has yet to offset immediate operational headwinds.

Restaurants Sector Volatile as MCD Holds Steady
The Restaurants sector remains fragmented, with McDonald’s (MCD) down 1.4% despite its Extra Value Meals strategy insulating sales. Starbucks’ 2.8% drop contrasts with Chipotle’s (CMG) resilience, as automation-driven efficiency gains offset labor costs. Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) post-Family Dollar divestiture lean model also outperforms, highlighting Starbucks’ unique challenges in balancing premium positioning with operational scalability.

Bearish Setup: SBU ETF and Put Options for Short-Term Volatility
• 200D MA: $87.81 (below) • RSI: 52.7 (neutral) • Bollinger Bands: $82.10–$88.87 • MACD: 0.64 (bullish divergence) • Turnover Rate: 0.496% (high liquidity)

Starbucks is in a bearish consolidation phase, with key support at $83.58 and resistance at $86.28. The Leverage Shares 2X Long SBUX Daily ETF (SBU) offers amplified exposure to a potential rebound above $85.20. For options, SBUX20260102P78 and SBUX20260102P79 stand out: both have high turnover (139, 1503) and moderate delta (-0.0627, -0.0904), ideal for capitalizing on a 5% downside scenario. Under a 5% drop to $79.56, SBUX20260102P78 (strike $78) yields a 83.33% payoff, while SBUX20260102P79 (strike $79) offers 100% payoff. Aggressive bears should target a breakdown below $82.10, with SBU’s -6.07% intraday drop signaling short-term vulnerability.

Backtest Starbucks Stock Performance
The backtest of Starbucks (SBUX) after a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows mixed short-term performance but a positive long-term trend. The 3-day win rate is 49.50%, the 10-day win rate is 48.12%, and the 30-day win rate is 49.31%, indicating that SBUX tends to bounce back relatively quickly. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.03% over 30 days, suggesting that while the stock may experience short-term volatility, it often recovers and can deliver modest gains in the medium to long term.

Starbucks at Crossroads: Defend $83.58 or Face Further Decline
Starbucks’ near-term outlook hinges on its ability to defend $83.58 support and retest $85.20. A breakdown below $82.10 could trigger a 52-week low retest, while a rebound above $86.28 may attract short-covering. With McDonald’s (MCD) down 1.4%, sector-wide caution persists. Investors should prioritize SBUX20260102P78 for bearish bets and monitor the SBU ETF for leveraged exposure. Watch for a resolution in labor disputes or tech-driven efficiency gains to spark a reversal.