Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $135,000 by Q3 2025 Driven by Institutional Inflows

Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin will reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025. This forecast is driven by significant institutional inflows and treasury purchases, which are fueling the price momentum of the top cryptocurrency. The bank's prediction comes at a time when Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have accumulated approximately 245,000 BTC in the second quarter of 2025. Standard Chartered projects that this figure will continue to rise in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

Institutional participation has been a key driver of Bitcoin's price movement. While MicroStrategy, a prominent Bitcoin holder, has slowed its pace of accumulation, new entrants have stepped in to fill the gap. Passive investment products have continued to attract consistent flows, despite occasional outflows. As a result, ETF buying remains the dominant market driver into the second half of the year. Recent data shows that there were $342.3 million in outflows on July 1, breaking a 15-day inflow streak. However, this accounts for only 7% of the $4.8 billion that entered during that period. Standard Chartered remains confident that net inflows will persist.

Standard Chartered has dismissed the historic post-halving slump narrative for 2025. In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically peaked and declined about 18 months after each halving event. However, analysts now argue that ETF and treasury flows are strong enough to break that trend. The latest data shows long-term holders are less likely to sell amid institutional accumulation. With liquidity flowing through regulated financial products, BTC’s price momentum now follows demand rather than supply narratives. This shift marks a structural change in Bitcoin’s market mechanics.

Standard Chartered’s model also factors in macro catalysts like a potential Fed leadership change and U.S. stablecoin legislation. These developments may create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin investment in the second half of 2025. The combination of regulatory clarity and strong inflows presents a bullish backdrop. Technical indicators further reinforce the bullish narrative. A recent Ichimoku analysis shows a confirmed golden cross near the $104,000 range, suggesting upward momentum. Price action also bounced from cloud support, indicating strong buying interest around key levels.

Bitcoin’s market dominance climbed past 60% in June, highlighting a rising trend since early 2023. This points to a macro rotation into BTC, as altcoins have seen relatively weak performance. Institutional focus remains fixed on Bitcoin. ETF inflows outpaced gold ETFs in the second quarter, marking a clear shift in investor preference during global uncertainty. Hedge fund activity in futures markets stayed flat, meaning most ETF buying remains unhedged. This unhedged demand strengthens the price floor going into the third quarter.