Stacks/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• STXUSDT opened at $0.436 and closed near $0.4011, down from its 24-hour high of $0.4491.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, with price near 0.4011 at 38.2% Fibonacci support.
• Volatility expanded near 0.4491 high, while volume spiked during the late afternoon decline.

Opening and Price Action Summary

Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) opened at $0.436 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $0.4491 before closing at $0.4011 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The total volume for the period was 2,574,164.0, with a notional turnover of $1,138,122.76. Price action suggests a bearish continuation with key support levels being tested.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a bearish bias, with a long lower wick near the 0.436 to 0.4491 high range. A key support level appears at 0.4202, coinciding with a previous consolidation zone and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A doji formed near the 0.4255 level, suggesting indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (0.433) and the 50-period MA (0.430) both dipped below price levels, reinforcing the bearish trend. Daily moving averages indicate a longer-term support zone near 0.4175–0.4205. Price appears to have found temporary support near the 0.4182–0.4202 range.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fell into oversold territory during the last 3–4 hours, dropping to 30–35, suggesting potential support for a rebound. The MACD histogram turned negative, reflecting bearish momentum. However, a narrowing histogram hints at a possible slowdown in the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the day, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A contraction in band width occurred near 0.4255, suggesting a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the decline from 0.4491 to 0.4202, particularly during the 19:00–20:00 ET period, with confirmation from notional turnover. A divergence between price and volume occurred near the 0.4202 level, hinting at a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were tested during the 24-hour period, with the 38.2% retracement at 0.4202 and 61.8% at 0.436. Price appears to have found a temporary floor near the 38.2% level, suggesting a possible bounce from this zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based strategy of entering long positions on oversold readings and exiting when RSI exits the oversold zone has shown promise. Over a one-year backtest period, this approach generated 6 trades, a 28.21% ROI, and a 2:1 win ratio with a maximum drawdown of -12.99%. The current RSI level, nearing the 38.2% retracement, may present a potential entry point for traders following this strategy.